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Johnson Controls InternationalFRA:TYIA -3.80%82 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 7.42% as of Jun. 2026, which is 86% above its 10-year median of 3.98. GuruFocus rates FRA:TYIA with a GF Score™ of 82/100 and a GF Value™ of €91.02 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,296 Construction companies, Johnson Controls International ranks worse than 52.01% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Johnson Controls International's forward rate of return for was 7.42%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Johnson Controls International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
FRA:TYIA'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -13.22 Med: 3.98 Max: 18.49
Current: 7.43
During the past 13 years, Johnson Controls International's highest Forward Rate of Return was 18.49. The lowest was -13.22. And the median was 3.98.
FRA:TYIA's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 52.01% of 1296
companies
in the Construction industry
Industry Median: 8.785
vs FRA:TYIA: 7.43
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Johnson Controls International (FRA:TYIA) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Johnson Controls International Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Johnson Controls International Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Johnson Controls International Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
FRA:TYIA vs TT, CARR, LII: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Building Products & Equipment subindustry, Johnson Controls International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Johnson Controls International Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Construction Industry
For the Construction industry and Industrials sector, Johnson Controls International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Johnson Controls International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Johnson Controls International Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 7.42% mean?
Johnson Controls International (FRA:TYIA) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 7.42% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Johnson Controls International and its competitors. This is 86% above median its historical median of 3.98. According to the industry distribution chart, Johnson Controls International ranks #674 out of 1296 companies in the Construction industry, placing it in the top 52%.
Is Johnson Controls International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Johnson Controls International's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 7.42% is 86% above median its 10-year median of 3.98. The Construction industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.79. Johnson Controls International's value of 7.42% is 15.5% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Johnson Controls International ranks #674 out of 1296 companies in the Construction industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Johnson Controls International has a GF Score™ of 82/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Johnson Controls International's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to TT and CARR?
According to the Construction industry distribution chart, Johnson Controls International ranks #674 out of 1296 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Johnson Controls International in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.79. Johnson Controls International's value of 7.42% is 15.5% below this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 3.98 vs. the industry median of 8.79, Johnson Controls International has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Construction company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Construction companies is 8.79, based on 1,296 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Johnson Controls International's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 7.42% is 15.5% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Johnson Controls International and its competitors. For the Construction industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.79 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Johnson Controls International's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 7.42%, which is 86% above median its own 10-year median of 3.98. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Johnson Controls International stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Johnson Controls International (FRA:TYIA) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €91.02, compared to a current price of €124.10 — trading 36.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 7.42%, which is 86% above median its 10-year median of 3.98 and 15.5% below the Construction industry median of 8.79. Johnson Controls International's overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Johnson Controls International (FRA:TYIA), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 7.42% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Johnson Controls International (FRA:TYIA) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Johnson Controls International stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of €124.10 is trading 36.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of €91.02.
GuruFocus considers Johnson Controls International to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for FRA:TYIA:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 7.42% (86% above median its 10-year median of 3.98)
GF Value™: €91.02 vs. price of €124.10 (36.3% above fair value)
Industry Position: 15.5% below the Construction median (#674 of 1296)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:TYIA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Following Johnson Controls' divestiture of its residential and light commercial HVAC businesses to Bosch in 2025, nearly all of its revenue comes from commercial HVAC (60%) and fire and security products and services (40%). A 2016 merger joined Johnson Controls' HVAC and Tyco's fire and security businesses with the premise that there is synergy in offering a broader variety of automation products and solutions to commercial buildings. We estimate Johnson Controls' pro forma revenue mix will be one-third products, one-third installation, and one-third services.
82GF Score
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Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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