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Motorola SolutionsMSI -0.15%90 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 16.29% as of Jun. 2026, which is 36% above its 10-year median of 12.01. GuruFocus rates MSI with a GF Score™ of 90/100 and a GF Value™ of $471.99 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,720 Hardware companies, Motorola Solutions ranks better than 73.49% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Motorola Solutions's forward rate of return for was 16.29%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Motorola Solutions's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
MSI'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 8.1 Med: 12.01 Max: 16.3
Current: 15.89
During the past 13 years, Motorola Solutions's highest Forward Rate of Return was 16.30. The lowest was 8.10. And the median was 12.01.
MSI's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 73.49% of 1720
companies
in the Hardware industry
Industry Median: 4.435
vs MSI: 15.89
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Motorola Solutions (NYSE:MSI) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Motorola Solutions Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Motorola Solutions Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Motorola Solutions's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Motorola Solutions Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
MSI vs HPE, LITE, CIEN: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Communication Equipment subindustry, Motorola Solutions's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Motorola Solutions Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Hardware Industry
For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Motorola Solutions's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Motorola Solutions's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Motorola Solutions Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 16.29% mean?
Motorola Solutions (MSI) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 16.29% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Motorola Solutions and its competitors. This is 36% above median its historical median of 12.01. Over the past decade, Motorola Solutions' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 8.10 to 16.30. According to the industry distribution chart, Motorola Solutions ranks #456 out of 1720 companies in the Hardware industry, placing it in the top 26.5%.
Is Motorola Solutions' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Motorola Solutions' current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 16.29% is 36% above median its 10-year median of 12.01. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 8.10 to a high of 16.30. The Hardware industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.44. Motorola Solutions' value of 16.29% is 267.3% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Motorola Solutions ranks #456 out of 1720 companies in the Hardware industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Motorola Solutions has a GF Score™ of 90/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Motorola Solutions' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to HPE and LITE?
According to the Hardware industry distribution chart, Motorola Solutions ranks #456 out of 1720 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Motorola Solutions in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.44. Motorola Solutions' value of 16.29% is 267.3% above this benchmark. Historically, Motorola Solutions' own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 8.10 to 16.30 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 12.01 vs. the industry median of 4.44, Motorola Solutions has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Hardware company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Hardware companies is 4.44, based on 1,720 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Motorola Solutions's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 16.29% is 267.3% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Motorola Solutions and its competitors. For the Hardware industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.44 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Motorola Solutions's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 16.29%, which is 36% above median its own 10-year median of 12.01. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Motorola Solutions stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Motorola Solutions (MSI) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $471.99, compared to a current price of $486.54 — trading 3.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 16.29%, which is 36% above median its 10-year median of 12.01 and 267.3% above the Hardware industry median of 4.44. Motorola Solutions' overall GF Score™ is 90/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Motorola Solutions (MSI), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 16.29% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Motorola Solutions (MSI) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Motorola Solutions stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $486.54 is trading 3.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of $471.99.
GuruFocus considers Motorola Solutions to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for MSI:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 16.29% (36% above median its 10-year median of 12.01)
GF Value™: $471.99 vs. price of $486.54 (3.1% above fair value)
Industry Position: 267.3% above the Hardware median (#456 of 1720)
No single metric tells the full story. See the MSI stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Motorola Solutions is a leading provider of communications and analytics, primarily serving public safety departments as well as schools, hospitals, and businesses. The bulk of the firm's revenue comes from sales of land mobile radios and radio network infrastructure, but the firm also sells surveillance equipment, dispatch software, and other networking capabilities. Most of Motorola's revenue comes from government agencies, while roughly 25% comes from schools and private businesses. Motorola has customers in over 100 countries and in every state in the United States.
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