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Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Alphabet(Google)XSWX:GOOGL 99 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.38% as of Jun. 2026, which is 1% below its 10-year median of 21.63. GuruFocus rates XSWX:GOOGL with a GF Score™ of 99/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF206.04 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 255 Interactive Media companies, Alphabet(Google) ranks better than 69.02% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Alphabet(Google)'s forward rate of return for was 21.38%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Alphabet(Google)'s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:GOOGL'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 15.92 Med: 21.63 Max: 23.67
Current: 21.39
During the past 13 years, Alphabet(Google)'s highest Forward Rate of Return was 23.67. The lowest was 15.92. And the median was 21.63.
XSWX:GOOGL's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 69.02% of 255
companies
in the Interactive Media industry
Industry Median: 13.33
vs XSWX:GOOGL: 21.39
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Alphabet(Google) (XSWX:GOOGL) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Alphabet(Google) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Alphabet(Google) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Alphabet(Google)'s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Alphabet(Google) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
XSWX:GOOGL vs META, SPOT, NBIS: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Internet Content & Information subindustry, Alphabet(Google)'s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alphabet(Google) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Interactive Media Industry
For the Interactive Media industry and Communication Services sector, Alphabet(Google)'s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alphabet(Google)'s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Alphabet(Google) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.38% mean?
Alphabet(Google) (XSWX:GOOGL) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.38% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Alphabet(Google) and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 21.63. Over the past decade, Alphabet(Google)'s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 15.92 to 23.67. According to the industry distribution chart, Alphabet(Google) ranks #79 out of 255 companies in the Interactive Media industry, placing it in the top 31%.
Is Alphabet(Google)'s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Alphabet(Google)'s current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.38% is near median its 10-year median of 21.63. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 15.92 to a high of 23.67. The Interactive Media industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.33. Alphabet(Google)'s value of 21.38% is 60.4% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Alphabet(Google) ranks #79 out of 255 companies in the Interactive Media industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Alphabet(Google) has a GF Score™ of 99/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Alphabet(Google)'s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to META and SPOT?
According to the Interactive Media industry distribution chart, Alphabet(Google) ranks #79 out of 255 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Alphabet(Google) in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.33. Alphabet(Google)'s value of 21.38% is 60.4% above this benchmark. Historically, Alphabet(Google)'s own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 15.92 to 23.67 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 21.63 vs. the industry median of 13.33, Alphabet(Google) has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for an Interactive Media company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Interactive Media companies is 13.33, based on 255 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Alphabet(Google)'s current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.38% is 60.4% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Alphabet(Google) and its competitors. For the Interactive Media industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.33 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Alphabet(Google)'s current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.38%, which is near median its own 10-year median of 21.63. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Alphabet(Google) stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alphabet(Google) (XSWX:GOOGL) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF206.04, compared to a current price of CHF293.75 — trading 42.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.38%, which is near median its 10-year median of 21.63 and 60.4% above the Interactive Media industry median of 13.33. Alphabet(Google)'s overall GF Score™ is 99/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Alphabet(Google) (XSWX:GOOGL), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.38% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Alphabet(Google) (XSWX:GOOGL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alphabet(Google) stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of CHF293.75 is trading 42.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of CHF206.04.
GuruFocus considers Alphabet(Google) to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:GOOGL:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 21.38% (near median its 10-year median of 21.63)
GF Value™: CHF206.04 vs. price of CHF293.75 (42.6% above fair value)
Industry Position: 60.4% above the Interactive Media median (#79 of 255)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:GOOGL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Alphabet is a holding company that wholly owns internet giant Google. The California-based company derives slightly less than 90% of its revenue from Google services, the vast majority of which is advertising sales. Alongside online ads, Google services houses sales stemming from Google's subscription services (YouTube TV and YouTube Music, among others), platforms (sales and in-app purchases on Play Store), and devices (Chromebooks, Pixel smartphones, and smart home products such as Chromecast). Google's cloud computing platform accounts for roughly 10% of Alphabet's revenue. The firm's investments in up-and-coming technologies such as self-driving cars (Waymo), health (Verily), and internet access (Google Fiber) make up the rest.
99GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:GOOGL
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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