Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Eli Lilly and CoXSWX:LLY 98 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 20.37% as of Mar. 2026, which is 45% above its 10-year median of 14.03. GuruFocus rates XSWX:LLY with a GF Score™ of 98/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF1,142.69 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 636 Drug Manufacturers companies, Eli Lilly and Co ranks better than 83.33% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Eli Lilly and Co's forward rate of return for was 20.37%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Eli Lilly and Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:LLY'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -7.66 Med: 14.03 Max: 22.01
Current: 20.28
During the past 13 years, Eli Lilly and Co's highest Forward Rate of Return was 22.01. The lowest was -7.66. And the median was 14.03.
XSWX:LLY's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 83.33% of 636
companies
in the Drug Manufacturers industry
Industry Median: 6.6
vs XSWX:LLY: 20.28
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Eli Lilly and Co (XSWX:LLY) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Eli Lilly and Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Eli Lilly and Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Eli Lilly and Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Eli Lilly and Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
XSWX:LLY vs JNJ, ABBV, MRK: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Eli Lilly and Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Eli Lilly and Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Drug Manufacturers Industry
For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Eli Lilly and Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Eli Lilly and Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Eli Lilly and Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 20.37% mean?
Eli Lilly and Co (XSWX:LLY) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 20.37% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Eli Lilly and Co and its competitors. This is 45% above median its historical median of 14.03. According to the industry distribution chart, Eli Lilly and Co ranks #106 out of 636 companies in the Drug Manufacturers industry, placing it in the top 16.7%.
Is Eli Lilly and Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Eli Lilly and Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 20.37% is 45% above median its 10-year median of 14.03. The Drug Manufacturers industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 6.60. Eli Lilly and Co's value of 20.37% is 208.6% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Eli Lilly and Co ranks #106 out of 636 companies in the Drug Manufacturers industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Eli Lilly and Co has a GF Score™ of 98/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Eli Lilly and Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to JNJ and ABBV?
According to the Drug Manufacturers industry distribution chart, Eli Lilly and Co ranks #106 out of 636 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Eli Lilly and Co in the top 17% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 6.60. Eli Lilly and Co's value of 20.37% is 208.6% above this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 14.03 vs. the industry median of 6.60, Eli Lilly and Co has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Drug Manufacturers company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Drug Manufacturers companies is 6.60, based on 636 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Eli Lilly and Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 20.37% is 208.6% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Eli Lilly and Co and its competitors. For the Drug Manufacturers industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 6.60 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Eli Lilly and Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 20.37%, which is 45% above median its own 10-year median of 14.03. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Eli Lilly and Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Eli Lilly and Co (XSWX:LLY) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF1,142.69, compared to a current price of CHF975.00 — trading 14.7% below its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 20.37%, which is 45% above median its 10-year median of 14.03 and 208.6% above the Drug Manufacturers industry median of 6.60. Eli Lilly and Co's overall GF Score™ is 98/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Eli Lilly and Co (XSWX:LLY), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 20.37% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Eli Lilly and Co (XSWX:LLY) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Eli Lilly and Co stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of CHF975.00 is trading 14.7% below its estimated GF Value™ of CHF1,142.69.
GuruFocus considers Eli Lilly and Co to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:LLY:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 20.37% (45% above median its 10-year median of 14.03)
GF Value™: CHF1,142.69 vs. price of CHF975.00 (14.7% below fair value)
Industry Position: 208.6% above the Drug Manufacturers median (#106 of 636)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:LLY stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Eli Lilly is a drug firm with a focus on neuroscience, cardiometabolic, cancer, and immunology. Lilly's key products include Verzenio and Jaypirca for cancer; Mounjaro, Zepbound, Foundayo, Jardiance, Trulicity, Humalog, and Humulin for cardiometabolic; and Taltz and Olumiant for immunology.
98GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:LLY
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
XSWX:LLY has been successfully added to your 
