Ultrapar ParticipacoesUGP +0.31%77 Altman Z-Score is 4.03 as of Jun. 25, 2026, which is 9% below its 10-year median of 4.45. GuruFocus rates UGP with a GF Score™ of 77/100 and a GF Value™ of $4.54 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 1 warning sign investors should review. Among 897 Oil & Gas companies, Ultrapar Participacoes ranks better than 80.49% on this metric.
The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.
Good Sign:
Altman Z-score of 4.13 is strong.
Ultrapar Participacoes has a Altman Z-Score of 4.03, indicating it is in Safe Zones. This implies the Altman Z-Score is strong.
The zones of discrimination were as such:
When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.
The historical rank and industry rank for Ultrapar Participacoes's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:
UGP'
s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 2.94 Med: 4.45 Max: 6.8
Current: 4.13
During the past 13 years, Ultrapar Participacoes's highest Altman Z-Score was 6.80. The lowest was 2.94. And the median was 4.45.
X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.
X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.
X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.
X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.
X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.
Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.
Ultrapar Participacoes Altman Z-Score Related Terms
Ultrapar Participacoes Altman Z-Score Historical Data
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The historical data trend for Ultrapar Participacoes's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Ultrapar Participacoes's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Ultrapar Participacoes Altman Z-Score vs Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Ultrapar Participacoes's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Ultrapar Participacoes's Altman Z-Score falls into.
Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.
Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) has a Altman Z-Score of 4.03 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Ultrapar Participacoes and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 4.45. Over the past decade, Ultrapar Participacoes' Altman Z-Score has ranged from 2.94 to 6.80. According to the industry distribution chart, Ultrapar Participacoes ranks #175 out of 897 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, placing it in the top 19.5%.
Is Ultrapar Participacoes' Altman Z-Score too high?
Ultrapar Participacoes' current Altman Z-Score of 4.03 is near median its 10-year median of 4.45. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 2.94 to a high of 6.80. The Oil & Gas industry median Altman Z-Score is 1.91. Ultrapar Participacoes' value of 4.03 is 111% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Ultrapar Participacoes ranks #175 out of 897 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Ultrapar Participacoes has a GF Score™ of 77/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Ultrapar Participacoes' Altman Z-Score compare to VLO and MPC?
According to the Oil & Gas industry distribution chart, Ultrapar Participacoes ranks #175 out of 897 companies for Altman Z-Score. This places Ultrapar Participacoes in the top 20% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Altman Z-Score is 1.91. Ultrapar Participacoes' value of 4.03 is 111% above this benchmark. Historically, Ultrapar Participacoes' own Altman Z-Score has ranged from 2.94 to 6.80 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 4.45 vs. the industry median of 1.91, Ultrapar Participacoes has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Altman Z-Score for an Oil & Gas company?
The median Altman Z-Score among Oil & Gas companies is 1.91, based on 897 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Altman Z-Score significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Altman Z-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Ultrapar Participacoes's current Altman Z-Score of 4.03 is 111% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Altman Z-Score mean?
A high Altman Z-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Ultrapar Participacoes and its competitors. For the Oil & Gas industry, the median Altman Z-Score is 1.91 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Ultrapar Participacoes's current Altman Z-Score is 4.03, which is near median its own 10-year median of 4.45. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Ultrapar Participacoes stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $4.54, compared to a current price of $4.90 — trading 7.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Altman Z-Score is 4.03, which is near median its 10-year median of 4.45 and 111% above the Oil & Gas industry median of 1.91. Ultrapar Participacoes' overall GF Score™ is 77/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Altman Z-Score calculated?
Altman Z-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP), the current Altman Z-Score is 4.03 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ultrapar Participacoes stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $4.90 is trading 7.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of $4.54.
GuruFocus considers Ultrapar Participacoes to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for UGP:
Altman Z-Score: 4.03 (near median its 10-year median of 4.45)
GF Value™: $4.54 vs. price of $4.90 (7.8% above fair value)
Industry Position: 111% above the Oil & Gas median (#175 of 897)
No single metric tells the full story. See the UGP stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Ultrapar Participacoes SA engages in the investment of its own capital in services, commercial, and industrial activities, through the subscription or acquisition of shares of other companies. The company's business segments include: i) Ultragaz distributes LPG in the segments: bulk, comprising condominiums, trade, services, industries, and agribusiness; and bottled, mainly comprising residential consumers. ii) Ipiranga, the majority revenue generating segment, engages in the distribution and sale of oil-related products to service stations that operate under the Ipiranga brand throughout Brazil. iii) Ultracargo operates in specialized liquid bulk storage solutions in the main logistics centers. iv) Hidrovias: operates in logistics solutions and waterway and multimodal infrastructure.
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