Ultrapar ParticipacoesUGP +3.27%75 Peter Lynch Fair Value is $12.80 as of Jul. 13, 2026, which is 1965% above its 10-year median of 0.62. GuruFocus rates UGP with a GF Score™ of 75/100 and a GF Value™ of $4.62 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 264 Oil & Gas companies, Ultrapar Participacoes ranks better than 80.68% on this metric.
Peter Lynch Fair Value applies to growing companies. The ideal range for the growth rate is between 10 - 20% a year. Peter Lynch thinks that the fair P/E value for a growth company equals its growth rate, that is PEG = 1. The earnings here is trailing twelve month (TTM) earnings. For non-bank companies, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for EBITDA per share over the past 5 years. For Banks, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for Book Value per share over the past 5 years. If 5-Year Growth Rate is greater than 25% a year, we use 25. If 5-Year Growth Rate is smaller than 5% a year, we do not calculate Peter Lynch Fair Value.
Here, as of today, Ultrapar Participacoes's PEG is 1. Ultrapar Participacoes's 5-Year TTM EBITDA Growth Rate is 25.
Ultrapar Participacoes's EPS without NRI for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Mar. 2026 was $0.51. Therefore, the Peter Lynch Fair Value for today is $12.80.
The historical rank and industry rank for Ultrapar Participacoes's Peter Lynch Fair Value or its related term are showing as below:
UGP'
s Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.28 Med: 0.62 Max: 1.83
Current: 0.44
During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Peter Lynch Fair Value Ratio of Ultrapar Participacoes was 1.83. The lowest was 0.28. And the median was 0.62.
UGP's Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value is ranked better than 80.68% of 264
companies
in the Oil & Gas industry
Industry Median: 1.025
vs UGP: 0.44
Note: Please don't confuse Peter Lynch Fair Value with the value reached in Peter Lynch Chart.
Ultrapar Participacoes (NYSE:UGP) Peter Lynch Fair Value Explanation
Peter Lynch Fair Value applies to growing companies. The ideal range for the growth rate is between 10 - 20% a year.
Peter Lynch thinks that the fair P/E value for a growth company equals its growth rate, that is PEG = 1. The earnings here is trailing twelve month (TTM) earnings. For non-bank companies, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for EBITDA per share over the past 5 years. For Banks, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for Book Value per share over the past 5 years.
Please don't confuse Peter Lynch Fair Value with the value reached in Peter Lynch Chart. In Peter Lynch chart, a fixed P/E ratio of 15 is used to draw the Earnings Line. Therefore the value reached has a P/E ratio of 15. But in Peter Lynch Fair Value calculation, P/E equals to the growth rate of EBITDA per share over the past 5 years, which is 25 instead of 15 in this case.
Ultrapar Participacoes's Price to Peter Lynch Fair Value Ratio for today is calculated as
Price to Peter Lynch Fair Value
=
Share Price
/
Peter Lynch Fair Value
=
6.00
/
12.80
=
0.47
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Ultrapar Participacoes Peter Lynch Fair Value Related Terms
Ultrapar Participacoes Peter Lynch Fair Value Historical Data
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The historical data trend for Ultrapar Participacoes's Peter Lynch Fair Value can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Ultrapar Participacoes Peter Lynch Fair Value Chart
UGP vs VLO, MPC, PSX: Peter Lynch Fair Value Comparison
For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Ultrapar Participacoes's Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Ultrapar Participacoes Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value vs Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Ultrapar Participacoes's Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Ultrapar Participacoes's Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value falls into.
Ultrapar Participacoes's EPS without NRI for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Mar. 2026 adds up the quarterly data reported by the company within the most recent 12 months, which was $0.51.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
** Please be aware that the 5-Year TTM EBITDA Growth Rate is calculated based on TTM data over the last 5 years. For quarterly reported companies, the TTM data adds up the quarterly data reported by the company within the most recent 12 months. For companies that report semi-annually, annually, or do not have enough quarterly data, GuruFocus uses the annual data as the TTM data.
If 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate is greater than 25% a year, we use 25.
If 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate is smaller than 5% a year, we do not calculate Peter Lynch Fair Value.
Please note that we use the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate for non-bank companies, as EBITDA growth is subject to less manipulations than net earnings per share. For banks, we use the 5-year average growth rate of Book Value per share as the growth rate. The reason is that EBITDA is not applicable to Banks and Book value is a relative important measurement for Banks. In the calculation, PEG=1 because Peter Lynch thinks that the fair P/E ratio of the growth stock is equal to its earnings growth rate.
What does a Peter Lynch Fair Value of $12.80 mean?
Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) has a Peter Lynch Fair Value of $12.80 as of Jul. 13, 2026. Peter Lynch Fair Value is the stock value based on a company's current earnings and five-year earnings growth, assuming a PEG of one. View historical data on Ultrapar Participacoes and its competitors. This is 1965% above median its historical median of 0.62. Over the past decade, Ultrapar Participacoes' Peter Lynch Fair Value has ranged from 0.28 to 1.83. According to the industry distribution chart, Ultrapar Participacoes ranks #51 out of 264 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, placing it in the top 19.3%.
Is Ultrapar Participacoes' Peter Lynch Fair Value too high?
Ultrapar Participacoes' current Peter Lynch Fair Value of $12.80 is 1965% above median its 10-year median of 0.62. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.28 to a high of 1.83. The Oil & Gas industry median Peter Lynch Fair Value is 1.03. Ultrapar Participacoes' value of $12.80 is 1148.8% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Ultrapar Participacoes ranks #51 out of 264 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Ultrapar Participacoes has a GF Score™ of 75/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Ultrapar Participacoes' Peter Lynch Fair Value compare to VLO and MPC?
According to the Oil & Gas industry distribution chart, Ultrapar Participacoes ranks #51 out of 264 companies for Peter Lynch Fair Value. This places Ultrapar Participacoes in the top 19% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Peter Lynch Fair Value is 1.03. Ultrapar Participacoes' value of $12.80 is 1148.8% above this benchmark. Historically, Ultrapar Participacoes' own Peter Lynch Fair Value has ranged from 0.28 to 1.83 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 0.62 vs. the industry median of 1.03, Ultrapar Participacoes has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Peter Lynch Fair Value for an Oil & Gas company?
The median Peter Lynch Fair Value among Oil & Gas companies is 1.03, based on 264 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Peter Lynch Fair Value significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Peter Lynch Fair Value should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Ultrapar Participacoes's current Peter Lynch Fair Value of $12.80 is 1148.8% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Peter Lynch Fair Value mean?
A high Peter Lynch Fair Value can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Peter Lynch Fair Value is the stock value based on a company's current earnings and five-year earnings growth, assuming a PEG of one. View historical data on Ultrapar Participacoes and its competitors. For the Oil & Gas industry, the median Peter Lynch Fair Value is 1.03 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Ultrapar Participacoes's current Peter Lynch Fair Value is $12.80, which is 1965% above median its own 10-year median of 0.62. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Ultrapar Participacoes stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $4.62, compared to a current price of $6.00 — trading 29.9% above its estimated fair value. The current Peter Lynch Fair Value is $12.80, which is 1965% above median its 10-year median of 0.62 and 1148.8% above the Oil & Gas industry median of 1.03. Ultrapar Participacoes' overall GF Score™ is 75/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Peter Lynch Fair Value calculated?
Peter Lynch Fair Value is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP), the current Peter Lynch Fair Value is $12.80 as of Jul. 13, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ultrapar Participacoes stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $6.00 is trading 29.9% above its estimated GF Value™ of $4.62.
GuruFocus considers Ultrapar Participacoes to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for UGP:
Peter Lynch Fair Value: $12.80 (1965% above median its 10-year median of 0.62)
GF Value™: $4.62 vs. price of $6.00 (29.9% above fair value)
Industry Position: 1148.8% above the Oil & Gas median (#51 of 264)
No single metric tells the full story. See the UGP stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Ultrapar Participacoes SA engages in the investment of its own capital in services, commercial, and industrial activities, through the subscription or acquisition of shares of other companies. The company's business segments include: i) Ultragaz distributes LPG in the segments: bulk, comprising condominiums, trade, services, industries, and agribusiness; and bottled, mainly comprising residential consumers. ii) Ipiranga, the majority revenue generating segment, engages in the distribution and sale of oil-related products to service stations that operate under the Ipiranga brand throughout Brazil. iii) Ultracargo operates in specialized liquid bulk storage solutions in the main logistics centers. iv) Hidrovias: operates in logistics solutions and waterway and multimodal infrastructure.
75GF Score
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