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InterMune (FRA:IUX) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : €-167.76 (As of Jun14)


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What is InterMune Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Jun14, InterMune's earnings power value is €-167.76. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


InterMune Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for InterMune's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

InterMune Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

InterMune Annual Data
Trend Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -25.91 -21.77 -229.68 -215.90 -177.75

InterMune Quarterly Data
Sep09 Dec09 Mar10 Jun10 Sep10 Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -180.11 -179.62 -177.75 -173.09 -168.08

Competitive Comparison of InterMune's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Biotechnology subindustry, InterMune's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


InterMune's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, InterMune's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where InterMune's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



InterMune Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

InterMune's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 67.20
DDA 1.35
Operating Margin % -2,289.18
SGA * 25% 19.15
Tax Rate % 0.25
Maintenance Capex 3.93
Cash and Cash Equivalents 412.30
Short-Term Debt 13.51
Long-Term Debt 159.06
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 99.21

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = -2,289.18%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = €67.20 Mil, Average Operating Margin = -2,289.18%, Average Adjusted SGA = 19.15,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 67.20 * -2,289.18% +19.15 = €-1519.271797497 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 0.25%, and "Normalized" EBIT = €-1519.271797497 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = -1519.271797497 * ( 1 - 0.25% ) = €-1515.5495815931 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 1.35 * 0.5 * 0.25% = €0.00165277 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = -1515.5495815931 + 0.00165277 = €-1515.5479288231 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
InterMune's Average Maintenance CAPEX = €3.93 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. InterMune's current cash and cash equivalent = €412.30 Mil.
InterMune's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 159.06 + 13.51 = €172.576 Mil.
InterMune's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 99.21 Mil.

InterMune's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jun14 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( -1515.5479288231 - 3.93)/ 9%+412.30-172.576 )/99.21
=-167.76

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -167.76061186464-58.06 )/-167.76061186464
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


InterMune  (FRA:IUX) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


InterMune Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

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InterMune (FRA:IUX) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
InterMune, Inc was incorporated in California in 1998 and reincorporated in Delaware in 2000 in connection with its initial public offering. InterMune is a biotechnology company focused on the research, development and commercialization of therapies in pulmonology and orphan fibrotic diseases. The Company's business is mainly focused on the development and commercialization of therapies within the specialized areas of pulmonology and orphan fibrotic diseases. It has an advanced-stage product candidate in pulmonology, pirfenidone that was granted marketing authorization effective February 2011 in all 27 member countries of the European Union for the treatment of adults with mild to moderate idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Pirfenidone is an orally active, small molecule compound under development for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Pirfenidone, a treatment for IPF, a progressive and fatal lung disease, has completed the global Phase 3 CAPACITY clinical development program. Actimmune is currently approved in the United States for the treatment of chronic granulomatous disease and severe, malignant osteopetrosis. Actimmune is also approved for commercial use in both indications in numerous other countries. CGD is a life-threatening congenital disorder that causes patients, mainly children, to be vulnerable to severe, recurrent bacterial and fungal infections. This results in frequent and prolonged hospitalizations and commonly results in death. Severe, malignant osteopetrosis is a life-threatening, congenital disorder that mainly affects children. This disease results in increased susceptibility to infection and an overgrowth of bony structures that might lead to blindness and/or deafness. The FDA and comparable regulatory agencies in state and local jurisdictions and in foreign countries impose substantial requirements upon the clinical development, manufacture and marketing of pharmaceutical products.

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