What is InterMune Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, InterMune's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of InterMune's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Biotechnology subindustry, InterMune's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
InterMune's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry
For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, InterMune's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where InterMune's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
InterMune Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
InterMune (FRA:IUX) Business Description
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InterMune, Inc was incorporated in California in 1998 and reincorporated in Delaware in 2000 in connection with its initial public offering. InterMune is a biotechnology company focused on the research, development and commercialization of therapies in pulmonology and orphan fibrotic diseases. The Company's business is mainly focused on the development and commercialization of therapies within the specialized areas of pulmonology and orphan fibrotic diseases. It has an advanced-stage product candidate in pulmonology, pirfenidone that was granted marketing authorization effective February 2011 in all 27 member countries of the European Union for the treatment of adults with mild to moderate idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Pirfenidone is an orally active, small molecule compound under development for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Pirfenidone, a treatment for IPF, a progressive and fatal lung disease, has completed the global Phase 3 CAPACITY clinical development program. Actimmune is currently approved in the United States for the treatment of chronic granulomatous disease and severe, malignant osteopetrosis. Actimmune is also approved for commercial use in both indications in numerous other countries. CGD is a life-threatening congenital disorder that causes patients, mainly children, to be vulnerable to severe, recurrent bacterial and fungal infections. This results in frequent and prolonged hospitalizations and commonly results in death. Severe, malignant osteopetrosis is a life-threatening, congenital disorder that mainly affects children. This disease results in increased susceptibility to infection and an overgrowth of bony structures that might lead to blindness and/or deafness. The FDA and comparable regulatory agencies in state and local jurisdictions and in foreign countries impose substantial requirements upon the clinical development, manufacture and marketing of pharmaceutical products.
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