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Biogen Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $262.95 (As of Sep21)
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As of Sep21, Biogen's earnings power value is $262.95. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is 1.14

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Biogen Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Biogen's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Biogen Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 103.03 109.01 173.99 228.25 241.68

Biogen Quarterly Data
Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 258.20 241.68 244.28 259.37 262.95

Competitive Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Biogen's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Biogen Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Biogen's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Biogen's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Biogen Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Biogen's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 12,934
DDA 637
Operating Margin % 40.18
SGA * 25% 565
Tax Rate % 18.35
Maintenance Capex 827
Cash and Cash Equivalents 2,955
Short-Term Debt 999
Long-Term Debt 6,621
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 149

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 40.18%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $ Mil, Average Operating Margin = 40.18%, Average Adjusted SGA = 565,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 12,934 * 40.18% +565 = $5762.3342656 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 18.35%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $5762.3342656 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 5762.3342656 * ( 1 - 18.35% ) = $4705.0323628764 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 637 * 0.5 * 18.35% = $58.4179543 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 4705.0323628764 + 58.4179543 = $4763.4503171764 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Biogen's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $827 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Biogen's current cash and cash equivalent = $2,955 Mil.
Biogen's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 6,621 + 999 = $7619.3 Mil.
Biogen's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 149 Mil.

Biogen's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Sep21 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 4763.4503171764 - 827)/ 9%+2,955-7619.3 )/149
=262.95

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 262.95407635534-259.95 )/262.95407635534
= 1.14%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Biogen  (NAS:BIIB) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Biogen Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Biogen's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Biogen Business Description

Biogen logo
Industry
Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Address
225 Binney Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142
Biogen and Idec merged in 2003, combining forces to market Biogen's multiple sclerosis drug Avonex and Idec's cancer drug Rituxan. Today, Rituxan and next-generation antibody Gazyva are marketed via a collaboration with Roche. Biogen also markets novel MS drugs Plegridy, Tysabri, Tecfidera, and Vumerity. In Japan, Biogen's MS portfolio is co-promoted by Eisai. Hemophilia therapies Eloctate and Alprolix (partnered with SOBI) were spun off as part of Bioverativ in 2017. Biogen has several drug candidates in phase 3 trials in neurology and neurodegenerative diseases and has launched Spinraza with partner Ionis. Aduhelm was approved as the firm's first Alzheimer's disease therapy in June 2021.
Executives
Mcdonnell Michael R officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer C/O IQVIA HOLDINGS INC. 83 WOOSTER HEIGHTS ROAD DANBURY CT 06810
Gregory Ginger officer: EVP, Human Resources C/O BIOGEN INC. 225 BINNEY ST. CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Kramer Robin officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer 999 VANDERBILT BEACH ROAD 3RD FLOOR NAPLES FL 34109
Sherwin Stephen A director C/O CELL GENESYS, INC. 500 FORBES BLVD. SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Hawkins William A director MEDTRONIC INC 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC310 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432-5604
Dorsa Caroline director BIOGEN INC. 225 BINNEY ST. CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Papadopoulos Stelios director 3 SOMERSET DRIVE SOUTH GREAT NECK NY 11020
Pangia Robert W director 3965 FREEDOM CIRCLE SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Leaming Nancy director C/O HOLOGIC INC BEDFORD MA 01730
Rowinsky Eric K director IMCLONE SYSTEMS INCORPORATED 180 VARICK STREET, 6TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10014
Denner Alexander J director C/O SARISSA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP 660 STEAMBOAT ROAD, 3RD FLOOR GREENWICH CT 06830
Posner Brian S director 14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Mulligan Richard director C/O ICAHN CAPITAL LP 767 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 4700 NEW YORK NY 10153
Mantas Jesus B director BIOGEN INC. 225 BINNEY STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Galdes Alphonse officer: EVP Pharmaceutical Oper & Tech BIOGEN INC. 225 BINNEY ST. CAMBRIDGE MA 02142

Biogen Headlines

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