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Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $-13.28 (As of Sep22)
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As of Sep22, Pfizer's earnings power value is $-13.28. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Pfizer's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Pfizer Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 36.79 5.25 -16.21 -15.99 -14.71

Pfizer Quarterly Data
Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -13.90 -14.71 -16.03 -14.90 -13.28

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Competitive Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Pfizer's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Pfizer's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Pfizer's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Pfizer Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Pfizer's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 58,883
DDA 5,398
Operating Margin % -8.99
SGA * 25% 3,161
Tax Rate % -54.12
Maintenance Capex 2,123
Cash and Cash Equivalents 36,123
Short-Term Debt 4,024
Long-Term Debt 31,653
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 5,718

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = -8.99%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $58,883 Mil, Average Operating Margin = -8.99%, Average Adjusted SGA = 3,161,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 58,883 * -8.99% +3,161 = $-2134.356631 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = -54.12%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $-2134.356631 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = -2134.356631 * ( 1 - -54.12% ) = $-3289.5024550467 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 5,398 * 0.5 * -54.12% = $-1460.847528 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = -3289.5024550467 + -1460.847528 = $-4750.3499830467 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Pfizer's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $2,123 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Pfizer's current cash and cash equivalent = $36,123 Mil.
Pfizer's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 31,653 + 4,024 = $35677 Mil.
Pfizer's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 5,718 Mil.

Pfizer's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Sep22 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( -4750.3499830467 - 2,123)/ 9%+36,123-35677 )/5,718
=-13.28

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -13.278116441348-50.24 )/-13.278116441348
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Pfizer  (NYSE:PFE) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Pfizer Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Pfizer's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) Business Description

Pfizer logo
Address
235 East 42nd Street, New York, NY, USA, 10017
Pfizer is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical firms, with annual sales close to $50 billion (excluding COVID-19 vaccine sales). While it historically sold many types of healthcare products and chemicals, now, prescription drugs and vaccines account for the majority of sales. Top sellers include pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar 13, cancer drug Ibrance, cardiovascular treatment Eliquis, and immunology drug Xeljanz. Pfizer sells these products globally, with international sales representing close to 50% of its total sales. Within international sales, emerging markets are a major contributor.
Executives
Denton David M officer: Chief Financial Officer & EVP 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Pao William officer: Executive Vice President C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY 235 EAST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10017
Mcdermott Michael officer: Executive Vice President C/O PFIZER INC. CORPORATE SECRETARY 235 EAST 42ND STREET 235 EAST 42ND STREET NY 10017
Malik Aamir officer: Executive Vice President C/O PFIZER INC. CORPORATE SECRETARY 235 EAST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10017
Carapezzi William R Jr officer: Executive Vice President 600 MOUNTAIN AVENUE MURRAY HILL NJ 07921
Sahni Payal officer: Executive Vice President ATTN: PFIZER CORP. SECRETARY 235 EAST 42ND ST. NEW YORK NY 10017
Desmond-hellmann Susan director 513 PARNASSUS AVENUE S126 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94143
Hockfield Susan director GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY 41 FARNSWORTH STREET BOSTON MA 02210
Damico Jennifer B. officer: SVP & Controller C/O PFIZER INC. CORPORATE SECRETARY 235 EAST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10017
Quincey James director THE COCA-COLA COMPANY ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA ATLANTA GA 30313
Gottlieb Scott director MOLECULAR INSIGHT PHARMACEUTICALS 160 SECOND STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Fonseca Lidia officer: Executive Vice President 358 SOUTH MAIN STREET BURLINGTON NC 27215
Goettler Michael officer: Group President 1000 MYLAN BOULEVARD CANONSBURG PA 15317
Rogers Dawn officer: Executive Vice President 235 EAST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10017
Littman Dan R. director ATTN: CORPORATE SECRETARY PFIZER INC. 235 E. 42ND ST NEW YORK NY 10017

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) Headlines

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