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TE Connectivity (NYSE:TEL) Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $60.37 (As of Dec23)
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As of Dec23, TE Connectivity's earnings power value is $60.37. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -138.06

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


TE Connectivity Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for TE Connectivity's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

TE Connectivity Annual Data
Trend Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep21 Sep22 Sep23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 33.26 25.47 47.56 53.84 52.27

TE Connectivity Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 55.94 56.93 58.71 52.27 60.37

Competitive Comparison

For the Electronic Components subindustry, TE Connectivity's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


TE Connectivity Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, TE Connectivity's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where TE Connectivity's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



TE Connectivity Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

TE Connectivity's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 14,668
DDA 755
Operating Margin % 16.83
SGA * 25% 384
Tax Rate % 10.97
Maintenance Capex 608
Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,170
Short-Term Debt 613
Long-Term Debt 3,585
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 313

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 16.83%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $14,668 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 16.83%, Average Adjusted SGA = 384,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 14,668 * 16.83% +384 = $2852.768378 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 10.97%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $2852.768378 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 2852.768378 * ( 1 - 10.97% ) = $2539.9195338266 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 755 * 0.5 * 10.97% = $41.3985375 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 2539.9195338266 + 41.3985375 = $2581.3180713266 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
TE Connectivity's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $608 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. TE Connectivity's current cash and cash equivalent = $1,170 Mil.
TE Connectivity's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 3,585 + 613 = $4198 Mil.
TE Connectivity's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 313 Mil.

TE Connectivity's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Dec23 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 2581.3180713266 - 608)/ 9%+1,170-4198 )/313
=60.37

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 60.368266642763-143.71 )/60.368266642763
= -138.06%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


TE Connectivity  (NYSE:TEL) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


TE Connectivity Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

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TE Connectivity (NYSE:TEL) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Muhlenstrasse 26, Schaffhausen, CHE, CH-8200
TE Connectivity is the largest electrical connector supplier in the world, supplying interconnect and sensor solutions to the transportation, industrial, and communications markets. With operations in 150 countries and over 500,000 stock-keeping units, TE has a broad portfolio that forms the electrical architecture of its end customers' cutting-edge innovations.
Executives
Terrence R Curtin director, officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer C/O TYCO ELECTRONICS LTD., 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
John S Jenkins officer: EVP & General Counsel 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Heath A Mitts officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer 1925 WEST FIELD COURT, SUITE 200, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Malavika Sagar officer: SVP, Chief Human Resources Off 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Jean-pierre Clamadieu director 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Shadrak W Kroeger officer: Pres., Communications Solution 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Abhijit Y Talwalkar director ONE AMD PLACE, PO BOX 3453, SUNNYVALE CA 94088
Tim Murphy officer: SVP & CHRO 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Thomas J Lynch director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 7 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, NEWTOWN PA 19840
Syaru Shirley Lin director
Robert J Ott officer: Sr VP & Controller C/O TYCO ELECTRONICS LTD, 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Steven T Merkt officer: President, Transportation Sol. 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Daniel J Phelan director C/O TYCO ELECTRONICS LTD., 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Aaron Kyle Stucki officer: Pres. Communications Solutions 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Eric Resch director, officer: SVP and Tax Officer C/O TYCO ELECTRONICS LTD., 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312