AOS (A.O. Smith) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.02% (As of Jul. 22, 2025)

View and export this data going back to 1983. Start your Free Trial

What is A.O. Smith Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, A.O. Smith's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of A.O. Smith's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Specialty Industrial Machinery subindustry, A.O. Smith's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

A.O. Smith's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Industrial Products Industry

For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, A.O. Smith's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where A.O. Smith's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Save Embed

;

Save Embed

;

A.O. Smith Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-8.33

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

A.O. Smith (NYSE:AOS) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

A.O. Smith Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of A.O. Smith's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

A.O. Smith Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » A.O. Smith Corp (NYSE:AOS) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0L7A:UK 3SM:Germany 3SM:Germany A1OS34:Brazil

Address

11270 West Park Place, Suite 170, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53224

Website

https://www.aosmith.com

A.O. Smith manufactures a broad lineup of water heaters, boilers, and water treatment products. The company has two reporting segments: North America (75% of sales) and rest of world (25% of sales). A.O. Smith is the leading manufacturer of water heaters in North America for the residential and commercial markets, with approximately 37% and 54% market share, respectively. Residential water heaters account for most of North American sales and are distributed equally through wholesale and retail channels. Most of A.O. Smith's international revenue is from China, a market the company entered during the mid-1990s.

Executives

Samuel M. Carver	officer: SVP - Global Operations	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 44 VANTAGE WAY, NASHVILLE TN 37228
Douglas Samuel Karge	officer: SVP - President NA Water Treat	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Robert J Heideman	officer: Senior Vice President Corp Tec	A. O. SMITH CORPORATE TECHNOLOGY CENTER, 12100 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Ronald D Brown	director	2090 FLORENCE AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45206
Ajita G Rajendra	officer: President, A. O. Smith Water P	A. O. SMITH WATER PRODUCTS COMPANY, 500 LINDAHL PARKWAY, ASHLAND CITY TN 37015
Idelle K Wolf	director
Mark D Smith	director
Mark A Petrarca	officer: Vice President - H.R. & P.A.	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
James F Stern	officer: Exec VP, General Counsel & Sec	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Kevin J. Wheeler	officer: Senior VP and President & GM	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 500 TENNESSEE WALTZ PARKWAY, ASHLAND CITY TN 37015
Benjamin A Otchere	officer: Vice President and Controller	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Michael M Larsen	director	ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC., 155 HARLEM AVE., GLENVIEW IL 60025
Daniel L Kempken	officer: Vice President and Controller	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Parag Kulkarni	officer: SVP - Int'l; President India	A. O. SMITH INDIA WATER PRODUCTS PRIVATE, #300, PHASE II, KIADB INDUSTRIAL AREA, KARNATAKA K7 562112
Earl E. Exum	director	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224