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Adobe (ADBE) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.04% (As of May. 27, 2024)


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What is Adobe Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Adobe's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Adobe's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Software - Infrastructure subindustry, Adobe's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Adobe's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Adobe's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Adobe's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Adobe Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.83

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Adobe  (NAS:ADBE) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Adobe Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Adobe (ADBE) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Adobe Inc (NAS:ADBE) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Address
345 Park Avenue, San Jose, CA, USA, 95110-2704
Adobe provides content creation, document management, and digital marketing and advertising software and services to creative professionals and marketers for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimizing and engaging with compelling content multiple operating systems, devices and media. The company operates with three segments: digital media content creation, digital experience for marketing solutions, and publishing for legacy products (less than 5% of revenue).
Executives
Mark S. Garfield officer: VP, CAO & Corp. Controller 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110-2704
Amy Banse director 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
David Wadhwani officer: SVP & GM, Digital Media ADOBE INC., 345 PARK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Shantanu Narayen director, officer: President and CEO 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Daniel Durn officer: EVP and CFO C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Scott Belsky officer: EVP, Chief Product Officer 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Cristiano R Amon director 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
John E Warnock director, other: Co-Chairman of the Board C/O ADOBE SYSTEMS INC, 345 PARK AVENUE P O BOX 2704, SAN JOSE CA 95110-2704
Dana Rao officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary 345 PARK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Ann Lewnes officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
David A Ricks director LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
M. Brett Biggs director 702 SW 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716
Laura Desmond director 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Spencer Adam Neumann director SIERRA INCOME CORPORATION, 375 PARK AVE., SUITE 3304, NEW YORK NY 10152
Gloria Chen officer: EVP, Strategy & Growth 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110

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