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Adobe (ADBE) Predictability Rank


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5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Adobe Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Adobe Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Adobe's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Adobe (ADBE) Business Description

Address
345 Park Avenue, San Jose, CA, USA, 95110-2704
Adobe provides content creation, document management, and digital marketing and advertising software and services to creative professionals and marketers for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimizing and engaging with compelling content multiple operating systems, devices and media. The company operates with three segments: digital media content creation, digital experience for marketing solutions, and publishing for legacy products (less than 5% of revenue).
Executives
Mark S. Garfield officer: VP, CAO & Corp. Controller 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110-2704
Amy Banse director 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
David Wadhwani officer: SVP & GM, Digital Media ADOBE INC., 345 PARK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Shantanu Narayen director, officer: President and CEO 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Daniel Durn officer: EVP and CFO C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Scott Belsky officer: EVP, Chief Product Officer 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Cristiano R Amon director 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
John E Warnock director, other: Co-Chairman of the Board C/O ADOBE SYSTEMS INC, 345 PARK AVENUE P O BOX 2704, SAN JOSE CA 95110-2704
Dana Rao officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary 345 PARK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Ann Lewnes officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
David A Ricks director LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
M. Brett Biggs director 702 SW 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716
Laura Desmond director 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Spencer Adam Neumann director SIERRA INCOME CORPORATION, 375 PARK AVE., SUITE 3304, NEW YORK NY 10152
Gloria Chen officer: EVP, Strategy & Growth 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110