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Adobe (ADBE) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $442.16 (As of May. 27, 2024)


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What is Adobe Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-05-27), Adobe's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $442.16.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Adobe's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Adobe is -7.52%.

The industry rank for Adobe's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ADBE's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
56.1% of 287 companies
in the Software industry
Industry Median: 0.97 vs ADBE: 1.08

Adobe Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Adobe's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Adobe Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Adobe Annual Data
Trend Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 Nov17 Nov18 Nov19 Nov20 Nov21 Nov22 Nov23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 602.03 540.65 472.41

Adobe Quarterly Data
May19 Aug19 Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21 Nov21 Feb22 May22 Aug22 Nov22 Feb23 May23 Aug23 Nov23 Feb24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 538.82 550.87 516.38 472.41 442.16

Competitive Comparison of Adobe's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Software - Infrastructure subindustry, Adobe's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Adobe's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Adobe's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Adobe's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Adobe Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.47%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Adobe's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 26.50%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $14.149.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Adobe's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=14.149*31.2501
=442.16

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(442.16-475.43)/442.16
=-7.52 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Adobe  (NAS:ADBE) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Adobe Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Adobe's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Adobe (ADBE) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Adobe Inc (NAS:ADBE) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Address
345 Park Avenue, San Jose, CA, USA, 95110-2704
Adobe provides content creation, document management, and digital marketing and advertising software and services to creative professionals and marketers for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimizing and engaging with compelling content multiple operating systems, devices and media. The company operates with three segments: digital media content creation, digital experience for marketing solutions, and publishing for legacy products (less than 5% of revenue).
Executives
Mark S. Garfield officer: VP, CAO & Corp. Controller 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110-2704
Amy Banse director 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
David Wadhwani officer: SVP & GM, Digital Media ADOBE INC., 345 PARK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Shantanu Narayen director, officer: President and CEO 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Daniel Durn officer: EVP and CFO C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Scott Belsky officer: EVP, Chief Product Officer 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Cristiano R Amon director 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
John E Warnock director, other: Co-Chairman of the Board C/O ADOBE SYSTEMS INC, 345 PARK AVENUE P O BOX 2704, SAN JOSE CA 95110-2704
Dana Rao officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary 345 PARK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Ann Lewnes officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
David A Ricks director LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
M. Brett Biggs director 702 SW 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716
Laura Desmond director 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Spencer Adam Neumann director SIERRA INCOME CORPORATION, 375 PARK AVE., SUITE 3304, NEW YORK NY 10152
Gloria Chen officer: EVP, Strategy & Growth 345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110