What is Alcatel-Lucent Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Alcatel-Lucent's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Alcatel-Lucent's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Communication Equipment subindustry, Alcatel-Lucent's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alcatel-Lucent's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Hardware Industry
For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Alcatel-Lucent's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alcatel-Lucent's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Alcatel-Lucent Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Alcatel-Lucent (Alcatel-Lucent) Business Description
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Alcatel-Lucent SA was incorporated on June 18, 1898. The Company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, operations and sales of equipment, material and software related to domestic, industrial, civil, military or other applications concerning electricity, telecommunications, computers, electronics, aerospace industry, nuclear energy, metallurgy, and, in general, of all the means of production or transmission of energy or communication. The Company's core Networking segment includes three business divisions: IP Routing, IP Transport and IP Platforms. The IP ROUTING focus is on the intelligent IP router market and emerging Software Defined Networking (SDN) markets and related professional services. In IP TRANSPORT segment company designs, manufactures and markets optical networking equipment to transport information over fiber optic connections over long distances on land or under sea, as well as for short distances in metropolitan and regional areas. The portfolio also includes related professional services and microwave wireless transmission equipment. In IP PLATFORMS, the Company offers software and services to service providers that allow them to meet the market evolution needs of mobile and fixed networks. The Company's access segment includes four business divisions: WIRELESS are committed to a wireless access portfolio that is suited to the operators that are moving to 4G/LTE quickly and decisively. FIXED ACCESS IP-based fixed access products and related professional services provides support for both DSL and fiber, allowing service providers to extend Ultra-Broadband access to the customer's premise regardless of technology and to seamlessly combine copper and fiber access technologies and FTTx deployment models to achieve the fastest return-on-investment and time-to-market. In LICENSING the Intellectual Property Business Group works to monetize the patent portfolio through licensing and patent sales while also maintaining and prosecuting patents. The managed services portfolio includes Build-Operate-Manage-Transfer (BOMT) Solutions, Operations Transformation Solutions, and Network Operations Services. These services can be delivered across a wide array of network technologies including Network Access (FTTx), Next generation wireless (LTE, Small Cells, 4G), and IP Networks. The Company's Other segment includes Enterprise and Government businesses to provide end-to-end products, solutions and services for small, medium, large and extra-large companies to improve conversations and collaboration across employees, customers and partners. The Company sells all of its products and services to the world's telecommunications service providers through its direct sales force. The Company's competitors include Avaya, Cisco Systems, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, Nokia Solutions and Networks (NSN), Samsung, Adtran, Calix, Ciena, Juniper, Ericsson and Huawei.
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