Alcatel-Lucent (Alcatel-Lucent) Predictability Rank

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What is Alcatel-Lucent Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alcatel-Lucent Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alcatel-Lucent (Alcatel-Lucent) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Alcatel-Lucent SA (OTCPK:ALALF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

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Address

Website

http://www.alcatel-lucent.com

Alcatel-Lucent SA was incorporated on June 18, 1898. The Company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, operations and sales of equipment, material and software related to domestic, industrial, civil, military or other applications concerning electricity, telecommunications, computers, electronics, aerospace industry, nuclear energy, metallurgy, and, in general, of all the means of production or transmission of energy or communication. The Company's core Networking segment includes three business divisions: IP Routing, IP Transport and IP Platforms. The IP ROUTING focus is on the intelligent IP router market and emerging Software Defined Networking (SDN) markets and related professional services. In IP TRANSPORT segment company designs, manufactures and markets optical networking equipment to transport information over fiber optic connections over long distances on land or under sea, as well as for short distances in metropolitan and regional areas. The portfolio also includes related professional services and microwave wireless transmission equipment. In IP PLATFORMS, the Company offers software and services to service providers that allow them to meet the market evolution needs of mobile and fixed networks. The Company's access segment includes four business divisions: WIRELESS are committed to a wireless access portfolio that is suited to the operators that are moving to 4G/LTE quickly and decisively. FIXED ACCESS IP-based fixed access products and related professional services provides support for both DSL and fiber, allowing service providers to extend Ultra-Broadband access to the customer's premise regardless of technology and to seamlessly combine copper and fiber access technologies and FTTx deployment models to achieve the fastest return-on-investment and time-to-market. In LICENSING the Intellectual Property Business Group works to monetize the patent portfolio through licensing and patent sales while also maintaining and prosecuting patents. The managed services portfolio includes Build-Operate-Manage-Transfer (BOMT) Solutions, Operations Transformation Solutions, and Network Operations Services. These services can be delivered across a wide array of network technologies including Network Access (FTTx), Next generation wireless (LTE, Small Cells, 4G), and IP Networks. The Company's Other segment includes Enterprise and Government businesses to provide end-to-end products, solutions and services for small, medium, large and extra-large companies to improve conversations and collaboration across employees, customers and partners. The Company sells all of its products and services to the world's telecommunications service providers through its direct sales force. The Company's competitors include Avaya, Cisco Systems, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, Nokia Solutions and Networks (NSN), Samsung, Adtran, Calix, Ciena, Juniper, Ericsson and Huawei.