What is Bona Film Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Bona Film Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Bona Film Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Broadcasting subindustry, Bona Film Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Bona Film Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Media - Diversified Industry
For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Bona Film Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Bona Film Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Bona Film Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Bona Film Group (Bona Film Group) Business Description
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Bona Film Group Ltd is incorporated in the Cayman Islands on July 8, 2010. On December 14, 2010, it completed its initial public offering. The Company operates as a film distributor in China. It distributes films through virtually all of the theater circuits in China. It has distribution rights to a selection of films through joint distribution arrangements with industry participants such as the state-owned China Film Group Corporation. It has distributed 39 Chinese films (including Hong Kong films) internationally. In addition to film distribution and film and television production operations, it owns and operates 21 movie theaters in commercial districts and residential areas in several major cities in China. The Company's film distribution activities consist of film sourcing, which includes identifying quality film projects with commercial potential and securing film distribution rights; print and marketing, which includes coordinating the distribution of film prints to theater circuits, as well as conducting marketing and publicity campaigns to promote the films to their target audiences; exhibition, which includes negotiating the terms of exhibitions of films in domestic and international movie theaters as well as through non-theatrical distribution channels and film advertising, which includes the sale of approximately three minutes advertising time immediately prior to the start of the theatrical screening of a film, in-film product placements and cross-promotion campaigns. The Company faces competition for audiences from companies within the entertainment business and from alternative forms of leisure entertainment, such as sporting events, outdoor recreation, video games, the Internet and other cultural and computer-related activities. Its competitors in film distribution and production include state-owned enterprises such as China Film Group and non state-owned companies such as Huayi Brothers. Its trademark includes "Bona". Its talent agency business is subject to various PRC laws, rules and regulations.
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