Bona Film Group (Bona Film Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Bona Film Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bona Film Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Bona Film Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Bona Film Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Bona Film Group (Bona Film Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Bona Film Group Ltd (NAS:BONA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.bonafilm.cn

Bona Film Group Ltd is incorporated in the Cayman Islands on July 8, 2010. On December 14, 2010, it completed its initial public offering. The Company operates as a film distributor in China. It distributes films through virtually all of the theater circuits in China. It has distribution rights to a selection of films through joint distribution arrangements with industry participants such as the state-owned China Film Group Corporation. It has distributed 39 Chinese films (including Hong Kong films) internationally. In addition to film distribution and film and television production operations, it owns and operates 21 movie theaters in commercial districts and residential areas in several major cities in China. The Company's film distribution activities consist of film sourcing, which includes identifying quality film projects with commercial potential and securing film distribution rights; print and marketing, which includes coordinating the distribution of film prints to theater circuits, as well as conducting marketing and publicity campaigns to promote the films to their target audiences; exhibition, which includes negotiating the terms of exhibitions of films in domestic and international movie theaters as well as through non-theatrical distribution channels and film advertising, which includes the sale of approximately three minutes advertising time immediately prior to the start of the theatrical screening of a film, in-film product placements and cross-promotion campaigns. The Company faces competition for audiences from companies within the entertainment business and from alternative forms of leisure entertainment, such as sporting events, outdoor recreation, video games, the Internet and other cultural and computer-related activities. Its competitors in film distribution and production include state-owned enterprises such as China Film Group and non state-owned companies such as Huayi Brothers. Its trademark includes "Bona". Its talent agency business is subject to various PRC laws, rules and regulations.

Bona Film Group (Bona Film Group) Headlines

No Headlines