Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Flight Centre Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Flight Centre Travel Group (OTCPK:FGETF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Flight Centre Travel Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
FGETF vs BKNG, ABNB, RCL: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Travel Services subindustry, Flight Centre Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Flight Centre Travel Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Travel & Leisure Industry
For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Flight Centre Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Flight Centre Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Flight Centre Travel Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.98
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
Flight Centre Travel Group (FGETF) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is Flight Centre Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Flight Centre Travel Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, Flight Centre Travel Group has a GF Score™ of 73/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Flight Centre Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to BKNG and ABNB?
Flight Centre Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Travel & Leisure industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Travel & Leisure company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Travel & Leisure industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Flight Centre Travel Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Flight Centre Travel Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Flight Centre Travel Group (FGETF) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $17.06, compared to a current price of $8.60 — trading 49.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Flight Centre Travel Group's overall GF Score™ is 73/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Flight Centre Travel Group (FGETF), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Flight Centre Travel Group (FGETF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Flight Centre Travel Group stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $8.60 is trading 49.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of $17.06.
GuruFocus considers Flight Centre Travel Group to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for FGETF:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
GF Value™: $17.06 vs. price of $8.60 (49.6% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FGETF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Flight Centre Travel is one of the largest travel intermediaries in the world. The group generates around half of its total transaction value, or TTV, from the corporate unit, with the other half from the leisure market and ancillary travel-related businesses. In corporate travel, Flight Centre is a global Top 4 agent operating in over 100 countries, with different brands catering to various customer segments (small and midsize businesses to large enterprises). In leisure, Flight Centre operates an extensive network of shops while also runs online channels and deal with independent agents. Over half of group TTV is generated in Australia and New Zealand, 20% from Americas, just under 20% from Europe, and the rest from Asia.
73GF Score
Get the complete analysis for FGETF
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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