Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Kose Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Kose Holdings (FRA:49K) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Kose Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
FRA:49K vs PG, CL, KVUE: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Household & Personal Products subindustry, Kose Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Kose Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Kose Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Kose Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Kose Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.66
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
Kose Holdings (FRA:49K) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is Kose Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Kose Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, Kose Holdings has a GF Score™ of 70/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Kose Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to PG and CL?
Kose Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Consumer Packaged Goods industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Kose Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Kose Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Kose Holdings (FRA:49K) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €48.47, compared to a current price of €27.40 — trading 43.5% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Kose Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 70/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Kose Holdings (FRA:49K), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Kose Holdings (FRA:49K) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Kose Holdings stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of €27.40 is trading 43.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of €48.47.
GuruFocus considers Kose Holdings to be Significantly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for FRA:49K:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
GF Value™: €48.47 vs. price of €27.40 (43.5% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:49K stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Kose is Japan's second-largest beauty company, best known for its prestige skincare brands such as Decorte and Albion. Founded in 1946, the company remains under the management of the Kobayashi family. Albion, a fully consolidated subsidiary in which Kose holds a 79.5% stake, operates independently under a separate brand of the Kobayashi family. With a portfolio of 37 brands spanning multiple price points, the group captured approximately 15% of Japan's premium beauty segment in 2024, according to Euromonitor. Japan remains its core market, contributing over 60% of sales, followed by North America (19%) and Asia (13%). The company distributes its products through a diversified channel mix of department stores, specialty retailers, drugstores, travel retail, and e-commerce platforms.
70GF Score
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