What is Bluefly, Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Bluefly,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Bluefly,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Bluefly,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Bluefly,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Bluefly,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Bluefly,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Bluefly, Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Bluefly, (FRA:BFY1) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Bluefly, Inc. is an off-price Internet retailer of fashion merchandise and accessories that provides its customers with access to in-season products. It launched the bluefly.com Website in September 1998. During 2011, it expanded its website portfolio by launching the belleandclive.com website, a members-only shopping site that presents curated selections of important brands via limited-time flash sale events. The Company's marketing efforts are focused both on acquiring new customers and retaining existing customers. The Company purchases merchandise directly from various suppliers and have devoted substantial resources over the years in establishing its reputation and brand awareness of selling authentic, high-end fashion merchandise at competitive discounted prices in a high-end retail environment. E-commerce generally, and, in particular, the online retail apparel and fashion accessories market, is a relatively dynamic, high-growth market. The Company's competition for online customers come from a variety of sources, including existing traditional retailers that are using the Internet to expand their channels of distribution, established and less established Internet companies, traditional direct marketers, designer brands that may attempt to sell their products directly to consumers through the Internet and other traditional off-price retail stores. The Company relies on various intellectual property laws and contractual restrictions to protect its proprietary rights in services and technology, including confidentiality, invention assignment and nondisclosure agreements with employees and contractors. The Company is not currently subject to direct regulation by any domestic or foreign governmental agency, other than regulations applicable to businesses generally, and laws or regulations directly applicable to online commerce.
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