What is Caplease, Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Caplease,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Caplease,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the REIT - Office subindustry, Caplease,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Caplease,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the REITs Industry
For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Caplease,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Caplease,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Caplease, Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Caplease, (FRA:DBJ) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
CapLease, Inc. was incorporated in Maryland. The Company completed its initial public offering in March 2004. It is a real estate investment trust, or REIT, that invests mainly in single tenant commercial real estate assets subject to long-term leases to high credit quality tenants. It focuses on properties that are subject to a net lease, or a lease that requires the tenant to pay all or substantially all expenses normally associated with the ownership of the property, such as utilities, real estate taxes, insurance and routine maintenance. The Company also has made and expects to continue to make investments in single tenant properties where the owner has exposure to property expenses when it determines it could sufficiently underwrite that exposure and isolate a predictable cash flow. The Company has two complimentary business lines: owning single tenant properties and making first mortgage loans and other debt investments on single tenant properties. It conducts its business through a number of subsidiaries. The Company owns most of its owned properties through its predecessor and operating partnership, Caplease, LP (the 'Operating Partnership'). It is the indirect sole general partner of, and owns approximately 99.6% of the common equity of, the Operating Partnership. The Company is subject to competition in each of its business segments. It competes with specialty finance companies, insurance companies, commercial banks, investment banks, savings and loan associations, mortgage bankers, mutual funds, institutional investors, pension funds, hedge funds, other lenders, governmental bodies and individuals and other entities, including REITs.
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