Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Caplease, Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Caplease,'s Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
CapLease, Inc. was incorporated in Maryland. The Company completed its initial public offering in March 2004. It is a real estate investment trust, or REIT, that invests mainly in single tenant commercial real estate assets subject to long-term leases to high credit quality tenants. It focuses on properties that are subject to a net lease, or a lease that requires the tenant to pay all or substantially all expenses normally associated with the ownership of the property, such as utilities, real estate taxes, insurance and routine maintenance. The Company also has made and expects to continue to make investments in single tenant properties where the owner has exposure to property expenses when it determines it could sufficiently underwrite that exposure and isolate a predictable cash flow. The Company has two complimentary business lines: owning single tenant properties and making first mortgage loans and other debt investments on single tenant properties. It conducts its business through a number of subsidiaries. The Company owns most of its owned properties through its predecessor and operating partnership, Caplease, LP (the 'Operating Partnership'). It is the indirect sole general partner of, and owns approximately 99.6% of the common equity of, the Operating Partnership. The Company is subject to competition in each of its business segments. It competes with specialty finance companies, insurance companies, commercial banks, investment banks, savings and loan associations, mortgage bankers, mutual funds, institutional investors, pension funds, hedge funds, other lenders, governmental bodies and individuals and other entities, including REITs.
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