What is GMX Resources Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, GMX Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of GMX Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, GMX Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
GMX Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, GMX Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where GMX Resources's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
GMX Resources Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
GMX Resources (FRA:HJ8A) Business Description
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GMX Resources Inc. is an oil and gas company, which is engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas from the Haynesville/Bossier Shale and Cotton Valley Sands in its core area, the Sabine Uplift of the Carthage, North Field of Harrison and Panola counties of East Texas. It also has properties located in Lea and Roosevelt counties, and New Mexico. During the first half of 2011, the company acquired all of the working interest and an average greater than 80% net revenue interest in approximately 35,000 undeveloped net acres of oil and gas leases located in Billings, Stark, McKenzie and Dunn Counties of North Dakota, and Richland, Sheridan and Wibaux Counties of Montana. The company holds Williston Basin leases in approximately 150 1,280-acre units and expects to be the operator in approximately 31 of those units, providing a minimum of 172 operated locations. At the same time it acquired all of the working interest and an 80% net revenue interest in approximately 40,000 undeveloped net acres of oil and gas leases located in Platte, Goshen and Laramie Counties of Wyoming. During 2011, it acquired approximately 35,000 net acres in the Bakken/Three Forks oil resource play, which provides it with over 400 potential horizontal locations. The company intends to continue its multi-year drilling program in 2012, expanding to a multi-rig program based on available liquidity and capital resources. It has three subsidiaries: Diamond Blue Drilling Co. (Diamond Blue), which previously owned three drilling rigs, Endeavor Pipeline Inc. (Endeavor Pipeline), which operates its water supply and salt water disposal systems in its East Texas area, and Endeavor Gathering, LLC (Endeavor Gathering), which owns the natural gas gathering system and related equipment operated by Endeavor Pipeline. Kinder Morgan Endeavor LLC (KME) owns 40% membership interest in Endeavor Gathering. During 2011 and the first two months of 2012, the company successfully drilled and completed five Bakken Petroleum System wells, all in North Dakota. The Wock 21-2-1H, Frank 31-4-1H and the Marsh 21-16 TFH wells are located in Stark County, while the Taboo 1-25-36H and the Evoniuk 21-2-1H are located in McKenzie and Billings County, North Dakota.
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