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GMX Resources (FRA:HJ8A) Predictability Rank


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What is GMX Resources Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


GMX Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

GMX Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

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GMX Resources (FRA:HJ8A) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
GMX Resources Inc. is an oil and gas company, which is engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas from the Haynesville/Bossier Shale and Cotton Valley Sands in its core area, the Sabine Uplift of the Carthage, North Field of Harrison and Panola counties of East Texas. It also has properties located in Lea and Roosevelt counties, and New Mexico. During the first half of 2011, the company acquired all of the working interest and an average greater than 80% net revenue interest in approximately 35,000 undeveloped net acres of oil and gas leases located in Billings, Stark, McKenzie and Dunn Counties of North Dakota, and Richland, Sheridan and Wibaux Counties of Montana. The company holds Williston Basin leases in approximately 150 1,280-acre units and expects to be the operator in approximately 31 of those units, providing a minimum of 172 operated locations. At the same time it acquired all of the working interest and an 80% net revenue interest in approximately 40,000 undeveloped net acres of oil and gas leases located in Platte, Goshen and Laramie Counties of Wyoming. During 2011, it acquired approximately 35,000 net acres in the Bakken/Three Forks oil resource play, which provides it with over 400 potential horizontal locations. The company intends to continue its multi-year drilling program in 2012, expanding to a multi-rig program based on available liquidity and capital resources. It has three subsidiaries: Diamond Blue Drilling Co. (Diamond Blue), which previously owned three drilling rigs, Endeavor Pipeline Inc. (Endeavor Pipeline), which operates its water supply and salt water disposal systems in its East Texas area, and Endeavor Gathering, LLC (Endeavor Gathering), which owns the natural gas gathering system and related equipment operated by Endeavor Pipeline. Kinder Morgan Endeavor LLC (KME) owns 40% membership interest in Endeavor Gathering. During 2011 and the first two months of 2012, the company successfully drilled and completed five Bakken Petroleum System wells, all in North Dakota. The Wock 21-2-1H, Frank 31-4-1H and the Marsh 21-16 TFH wells are located in Stark County, while the Taboo 1-25-36H and the Evoniuk 21-2-1H are located in McKenzie and Billings County, North Dakota.

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