What is TRW Automotive Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, TRW Automotive Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of TRW Automotive Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Auto Parts subindustry, TRW Automotive Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
TRW Automotive Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry
For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, TRW Automotive Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where TRW Automotive Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
TRW Automotive Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
TRW Automotive Holdings (FRA:TQT) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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TRW Automotive Holdings Corp is a Delaware corporation formed in 2002. The Company is a supplier of automotive systems, modules and components to automotive original equipment manufacturers and related aftermarkets. It conducts substantially all of its operations through subsidiaries. These operations encompass the design, manufacture and sale of active and passive safety related products and systems. Active safety related products and systems principally refer to vehicle dynamic controls (braking and steering) and electronics (driver assistance systems), and passive safety related products and systems principally refer to occupant restraints (airbags and seat belts) and electronics (airbag electronic control units, and crash and occupant weight sensors). It operates its business in four segments: Chassis Systems, Occupant Safety Systems, Electronics and Automotive Components. The Chassis Systems segment focuses on the design, manufacture and sale of products and systems relating to braking, steering, modules, and linkage and suspension. It sells its Chassis Systems products and systems to OEMs and other Tier 1 suppliers. The Occupant Safety Systems segment focuses on the design, manufacture and sale of products and systems relating to airbags, seat belts, and steering wheels. It sells its Occupant Safety Systems products and systems to OEMs and other Tier 1 suppliers. It also sells these products and systems to OEM service organizations. The Electronics segment focuses on the design, manufacture and sale of electronics components and systems in the areas of safety, chassis, radio frequency, powertrain, and driver assistance systems, including cameras and radars. It sells its Electronics products and systems to OEMs and to its Chassis Systems segment (braking and steering applications). It also sells these products and systems to OEM service organizations. The Automotive Components segment focuses on the design, manufacture and sale of body controls, engine valves, and engineered fasteners and components. It sells its Automotive Components products to OEMs and other Tier 1 suppliers, and to certain non-automotive markets and customers. It also sells these products to OEM service organizations. In addition, it sells some engine valve and body control products to independent distributors for the automotive aftermarket. The Company's principal competitors include Advics, Bosch, Continental, JTEKT, Nexteer and ZF in the Chassis Systems segment; Autoliv, Key Safety, and Takata in the Occupant Safety Systems segment; Autoliv, Bosch, Continental, Delphi, Denso, and Magna in the Electronics segment; and Delphi, Eaton, ITW, Kostal, Nifco, Raymond, Tokai Rika, and Valeo in the Automotive Components segment. Its operations are subject to a variety of federal, state, local and international laws and regulations which may have a direct or indirect effect on its business.
TRW Automotive Holdings (FRA:TQT) Headlines
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