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Group 1 Automotive (Group 1 Automotive) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.04% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is Group 1 Automotive Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Group 1 Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Group 1 Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Auto & Truck Dealerships subindustry, Group 1 Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Group 1 Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Group 1 Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Group 1 Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Group 1 Automotive Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.95

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Group 1 Automotive  (NYSE:GPI) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Group 1 Automotive Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Group 1 Automotive (Group 1 Automotive) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
800 Gessner, Suite 500, Houston, TX, USA, 77024
Group 1 owns and operates 41 collision centers and 201 automotive dealerships in the U.S. and the U.K., offering 35 brands of automobiles altogether. About 150 of the stores are in the U.S. with locations mostly in metropolitan areas in 17 states in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, and California. Texas alone contributed 37% of new-vehicle unit volume in 2022 and the U.K. about 19%. Texas, Oklahoma, and Massachusetts combined were about 53%. Revenue in 2022 totaled $16.2 billion. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Houston.
Executives
Daniel James Mchenry officer: Chief Financial Officer 800 GESSNER SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Carin Marcy Barth director
Daryl Kenningham officer: Regional VP, East Region 800 GESSNER, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Michael David Jones officer: Sr. Vice President 800 GESSNER SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Peter C Delongchamps officer: VP, Manufacturer Relations 800 GESSNER, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Darryl M Burman officer: Sr. VP & General Counsel 800 GESSNER, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Edward Mckissic officer: Senior VP, Human Resources 800 GESSNER SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Lincoln Pereira director 800 GESSNER, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Gillian A. Hobson officer: SVP, Chief Legal Officer & Sec 800 GESSNER RD STE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Earl J Hesterberg director, officer: President & CEO GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE, INC., 800 GESSNER, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Frank Grese officer: Regional VP, West Region 800 GESSNER, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Max P Watson director 800 GESSNER, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Steven Mizell director 2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Steven P Stanbrook director 1525 HOWE ST, RACINE WI 53403
John C Rickel officer: SVP & CFO 4080 JENKINS ROAD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421