IPA Investment Group JSC (HSTC:IPA) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03% (As of Jul. 14, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

HSTC:IPA IPA Investment Group JSC HSTC:IPA
85 GF Score
Price ₫15,200.00
GF Value ₫23,275.23
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 5 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is IPA Investment Group JSC Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

IPA Investment Group JSC HSTC:IPA 85 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jul. 14, 2026. GuruFocus rates HSTC:IPA with a GF Score™ of 85/100 and a GF Value™ of ₫23,275.23 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, IPA Investment Group JSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

IPA Investment Group JSC  (HSTC:IPA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

IPA Investment Group JSC Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

HSTC:IPA vs MS, GS, SCHW: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Capital Markets subindustry, IPA Investment Group JSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

IPA Investment Group JSC Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Capital Markets Industry

For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, IPA Investment Group JSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where IPA Investment Group JSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


HSTC:IPA
85GF Score
IPA Investment Group JSC HSTC:IPA
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

IPA Investment Group JSC Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.98

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
IPA Investment Group JSC (HSTC:IPA) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jul. 14, 2026.
Is IPA Investment Group JSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
IPA Investment Group JSC's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, IPA Investment Group JSC has a GF Score™ of 85/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does IPA Investment Group JSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to MS and GS?
IPA Investment Group JSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Capital Markets industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Capital Markets company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Capital Markets industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. IPA Investment Group JSC's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is IPA Investment Group JSC stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, IPA Investment Group JSC (HSTC:IPA) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is ₫23,275.23, compared to a current price of ₫15,200.00 — trading 34.7% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. IPA Investment Group JSC's overall GF Score™ is 85/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For IPA Investment Group JSC (HSTC:IPA), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jul. 14, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is IPA Investment Group JSC (HSTC:IPA) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, IPA Investment Group JSC stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of ₫15,200.00 is trading 34.7% below its estimated GF Value™ of ₫23,275.23. GuruFocus considers IPA Investment Group JSC to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for HSTC:IPA:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
  • GF Value™: ₫23,275.23 vs. price of ₫15,200.00 (34.7% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 85/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the HSTC:IPA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

IPA Investment Group JSC Business Description

Address Nguyen Thuong Hien, No. 1, Hai Ba Trung Ward, Hanoi, VNM
IPA Investment Group JSC is a multi-sector investment group building and operating a business ecosystem under the Capability Bank model. It operates diversified business lines directly and/or through subsidiaries, associated companies, and enterprises within the IPA Group ecosystem in Vietnam. The Group's operating business segments are: Financial Services, Investment, Commercial electricity production, Business solutions, F&B, and Others: other services, real estate, goods, etc. The majority of its revenue is derived from its Business solutions and Commercial electricity production segments. These segments offer technology and digital solutions to businesses and engage in construction investment, power facilities development, and the trading of commercial electricity.
85GF Score

Get the complete analysis for HSTC:IPA

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

₫15,200.00
Price
₫23,275.23
GF Value