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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ISX:ALII) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitor Comparison
For the Marine Shipping subindustry, PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.83
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ISX:ALII) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Aug. 15, 2026.
Is PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to competitors?
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Transportation industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Transportation company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Transportation industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ISX:ALII) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is Rp571.08, compared to a current price of Rp815.00 — trading 42.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk's overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ISX:ALII), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Aug. 15, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ISX:ALII) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of Rp815.00 is trading 42.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of Rp571.08.
GuruFocus considers PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for ISX:ALII:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
GF Value™: Rp571.08 vs. price of Rp815.00 (42.7% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ISX:ALII stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk is engaged in sea transportation services, transshipment, ISP, coal trading and transportation, providing integrated products and services to support supply chain operations in the mining sector, to manage and support mining logistics and sea shipping services for coal mines of affiliated companies. Its activity is managing coal transportation using barges, supported by SIUPAL, ISM Code and ISPS Code. Its segments comprise Coal Barging, serving customers to transport using 180 feet barges and 300 feet barges with tugboats; ISP, located on the bank of the Mahakam River and used to move coal from 180 feet barges to 300 feet barges; and FTU, with a capacity of 20,000 MT PWWD used to move cargo coal from 300 feet barges to mother vessel.
69GF Score
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