PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (ISX:KKGI) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03% (As of Jul. 17, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

ISX:KKGI PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk ISX:KKGI
68 GF Score
Price Rp278.00
GF Value Rp238.01
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 6 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk ISX:KKGI +2.21% 68 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jul. 17, 2026. GuruFocus rates ISX:KKGI with a GF Score™ of 68/100 and a GF Value™ of Rp238.01 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk  (ISX:KKGI) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitor Comparison

For the Thermal Coal subindustry, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Other Energy Sources Industry

For the Other Energy Sources industry and Energy sector, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


ISX:KKGI
68GF Score
PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk ISX:KKGI
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.19

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (ISX:KKGI) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jul. 17, 2026.
Is PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk has a GF Score™ of 68/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to competitors?
PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Other Energy Sources industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Other Energy Sources company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Other Energy Sources industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (ISX:KKGI) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is Rp238.01, compared to a current price of Rp278.00 — trading 16.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk's overall GF Score™ is 68/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (ISX:KKGI), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jul. 17, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (ISX:KKGI) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of Rp278.00 is trading 16.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of Rp238.01. GuruFocus considers PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for ISX:KKGI:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
  • GF Value™: Rp238.01 vs. price of Rp278.00 (16.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 68/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ISX:KKGI stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk Business Description

Address Jalan Pembangunan I No. 3, Bumi Raya Group Building, Central Jakarta, Jakarta, IDN, 10130
PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk is an Indonesia-based energy and mining company mainly engaged in coal mining operations. The company has six reportable business segments: Coal, Electricity, Nickel Ore Trade, Mining Services, Property, and Others. It generates the majority of its revenue from the Coal segment.
68GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ISX:KKGI

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

Rp278.00
Price
Rp238.01
GF Value