Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Kun Peng International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.72%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Kun Peng International (OTCPK:KPEAD) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Kun Peng International Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
KPEAD vs MOGU, SBDS, YJ: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Internet Retail subindustry, Kun Peng International's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Kun Peng International Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Kun Peng International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Kun Peng International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Kun Peng International Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-4.93
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.72% mean?
Kun Peng International (KPEAD) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.72% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is Kun Peng International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Kun Peng International's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.72%. Overall, Kun Peng International has a GF Score™ of 29/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Kun Peng International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to MOGU and SBDS?
Kun Peng International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.72% can be compared against companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Retail - Cyclical company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Retail - Cyclical industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Kun Peng International's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.72%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Kun Peng International stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Kun Peng International (KPEAD) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $0.26, compared to a current price of $0.38 — trading 44.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.72%. Kun Peng International's overall GF Score™ is 29/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Kun Peng International (KPEAD), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.72% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Kun Peng International (KPEAD) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Kun Peng International stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $0.38 is trading 44.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $0.26.
GuruFocus considers Kun Peng International to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for KPEAD:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.72%
GF Value™: $0.26 vs. price of $0.38 (44.4% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the KPEAD stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Kun Peng International Ltd through its subsidiaries and VIE is currently engaged in the sale of healthcare and health-related household products through its online platform, King Eagle Mall and physical store (Smart kiosks) as the carrier to provide people with more professional and comprehensive health services. Its products include health care products such as dietary supplements, nutritional health foods, beauty cosmeceuticals, and other categories (for instance, milk powder, and dried fruits) of health foods for supporting the cardiovascular system, and bone joint health. It offers collagen peptides, probiotics, and health foods for improving blood circulation and vein health, as well as household products that can promote and improve a healthier lifestyle.
29GF Score
Get the complete analysis for KPEAD
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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