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VistaGen Therapeutics Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.36% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, VistaGen Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.36%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Biotechnology subindustry, VistaGen Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

VistaGen Therapeutics Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, VistaGen Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where VistaGen Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



VistaGen Therapeutics Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-5.64

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.36%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


VistaGen Therapeutics  (NAS:VTGN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


VistaGen Therapeutics Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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VistaGen Therapeutics Business Description

VistaGen Therapeutics logo
Industry
Healthcare » Biotechnology NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
343 Allerton Avenue, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080
VistaGen Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology firm. The company is in its clinical stage and engaged in developing and commercializing product candidates for patients with diseases and disorders involving the central nervous system. Its lead product candidate, AV-101, is an orally available prodrug candidate in Phase II development, initially for the adjunctive treatment of a major depressive disorder in patients with an inadequate response to standard antidepressants. The PH94B is a novel neuroactive nasal spray with therapeutic potential in a wide range of indications involving anxiety or phobia; PH10 is an odorless, fast-acting synthetic neurosteroid for neuropsychiatric indications involving depression.
Executives
Saxe Jon S director FIRST HORIZON PHARMACEUTICAL CORP 660 HEMBREE PKWY STE 106 ROSWELL GA 30076
Dotson Jerrold Duane officer: VP, CFO AND SECRETARY 5 CENTERPOINTE DRIVE SUITE 400 LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
Singh Shawn director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC. 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Snodgrass H. Ralph director, officer: PRES./CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER 384 OYSTER POINT BLVD. SUITE 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Smith Mark Alan officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Mcpartland Mark A. officer: VP CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC. 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Gin Jerry B director 343 ALLERTON AVE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Underdown Brian J. director C/O LUMIRA CAPITAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT 141 ADELAIDE ST. WEST, SUITE 770 TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA M5H 3L5 A6 00000
Cunningham Ann Michelle director 255 N CALDWELL CIRCLE DOWNINGTOWN PA 19335
Rice A. Franklin officer: VP CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT 384 OYSTER POINT BLVD. SUITE 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Bonfiglio Gregory A. director 384 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, NO. 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Platinum Long Term Growth Vii, Llc 10 percent owner 152 WEST 57TH STREET 4TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019
Cato Holding Co 10 percent owner 4364 SOUTH ALSTON AVENUE DURHAM NC 27713
Cato Allen Easley 10 percent owner 4364 SOUTH ALSTON AVENUE DURHAM NC 27713
Jones Stephanie director, 10 percent owner, officer: PRESIDENT 13834 W. HOYT ROAD RATHDRUM ID 83858

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