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Beazer Homes USA Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.07% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Beazer Homes USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Residential Construction subindustry, Beazer Homes USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Beazer Homes USA Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Homebuilding & Construction industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Beazer Homes USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Beazer Homes USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Beazer Homes USA Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.26

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.07%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Beazer Homes USA  (NYSE:BZH) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Beazer Homes USA Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Beazer Homes USA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Beazer Homes USA Business Description

Beazer Homes USA logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1000 Abernathy Road, Suite 260, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328
Beazer Homes USA Inc is an American construction company that focuses on residential construction. The company specializes in single-family housing and multi-unit building construction in over 13 states and over 22 metro markets. Beazer Homes builds homes and communities that target first-time, move-up, and luxury homebuyers with an average selling price of roughly $300,000. From a geographic perspective, home sales in the western and eastern United States have been the leading sources of revenue for the company. Key metro areas include Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Orlando, and Tampa. The company also focuses on land purchasing and development to support future construction efforts as well as mortgage services for its homebuyers.
Executives
Salomon Robert L. officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 5535 LEXINGTON WOODS LANE ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Zelnak Stephen P Jr director MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC 2710 WYCLIFF ROAD RALEIGH NC 27607
Acton Elizabeth S director 5408 WALDENHILL COURT SUPERIOR TOWNSHIP MI 48198
Orser Peter M director 1000 ABERNATHY ROAD SUITE 260 ATLANTA GA 30328
Shepherd Danny R director VULCAN MATERIALS COMPANY 1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Spitz David J director C/O CHANNELADVISOR CORPORATION 2701 AERIAL CENTER PARKWAY MORRISVILLE NC 27568
Belknap Keith L Jr officer: EVP, General Counsel 3585 ENGINEERING DRIVE SUITE 100 NORCROSS GA 30092
Provencio Norma Ann director 2150 ST. ELZEAR BLVD. WEST LAVAL A8 H7L 4A8
Merrill Allan P director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO BEAZER HOMES 1000 ABERNATHY RD, SUITE 1200 ATLANTA GA 30328
Winkle C Christian director ONE RAVINIA DRIVE STE 1500 ATLANTA GA 30346
Alpert Laurent director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: ALPERT LAURENT a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Beazer Brian C director C/O NUMEREX 1600 PARKWOOD CIRCLE #200 ATLANTA GA 30339-2119
Leemputte Peter G director CHICAGO TITLE CORP 171 N CLARK ST CHICAGO IL 80601
Khoury Kenneth F officer: Administration BEAZER HOMES 1000 ABERNATHY RD, SUITE 1200 ATLANTA GA 30328
Solari Larry T director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SOLARI LARRY T a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}

Beazer Homes USA Headlines

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