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Cardinal Health Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.30% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Cardinal Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.30%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Medical Distribution subindustry, Cardinal Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Cardinal Health Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Medical Distribution industry and Healthcare sector, Cardinal Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cardinal Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Cardinal Health Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-5.79

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.30%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Cardinal Health  (NYSE:CAH) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Cardinal Health Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cardinal Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Cardinal Health Business Description

Cardinal Health logo
Industry
Healthcare » Medical Distribution NAICS : 424210 SIC : 5122
Address
7000 Cardinal Place, Dublin, OH, USA, 43017
Cardinal Health is the third- largest global logistics provider engaged in wholesale pharmaceutical and medical products. Similar to its closest two peers, the company has evolved over time and has become entrenched in the sourcing and distribution of brand-name and generic pharmaceuticals and related services to hospitals, healthcare systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories, and physician offices. Through acquisitions, Cardinal Health has the ability to manufacture commodity products and certain medical devices.
Executives
Losh J Michael director H.B. FULLER COMPANY P.O. BOX 64683 ST. PAUL MN 55164-0683
Scarborough Dean A director 150 N. ORANGE GROVE BLVD PASADENA CA 91103
Snow Ola M officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Edison Sheri H. director 1069 STATE ROUTE 46 EAST BATESVILLE IN 47006
English Patricia M officer: Chief Accounting Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Mason Stephen M officer: CEO, Medical Segment 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Mayer Jessica L officer: Chief Legal/Compliance Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Rice Brian S officer: Chief Information Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Holcomb Michele officer: EVP - Strategy & Corp. Dev. 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Hollar Jason M. officer: Chief Financial Officer 3333 BEVERLY ROAD HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Kaufmann Michael C director, officer: CEO 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Crawford Victor L. officer: CEO, Pharmaceutical Segment C/O THE PEPSI BOTTLING GROUP, INC. ONE PEPSI WAY SOMERS NY 10589
Laws Stuart G officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer CARDINAL HEALTH, INC. 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Evans David C director C/O THE SCOTTS MIRACLE-GRO COMPANY 14111 SCOTTSLAWN ROAD MARYSVILLE OH 43041
Darden Calvin director 11235 STROUP ROAD ROSWELL GA 30075

Cardinal Health Headlines

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