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China Green Agriculture Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.32% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, China Green Agriculture's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.32%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Agricultural Inputs subindustry, China Green Agriculture's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

China Green Agriculture Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Agriculture industry and Basic Materials sector, China Green Agriculture's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China Green Agriculture's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



China Green Agriculture Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-5.73

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.32%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


China Green Agriculture  (NYSE:CGA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


China Green Agriculture Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of China Green Agriculture's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


China Green Agriculture Business Description

China Green Agriculture logo
Industry
Basic Materials » Agriculture NAICS : 325320 SIC : 2879
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
South Taibai Road, 3rd Floor, Borough A, Block A. No. 181, Shaanxi Province, Xi’an, CHN, 710065
China Green Agriculture Inc is engaged in the business of fertilizer and agricultural products. It involves the research, development, production, distribution, and sale of humic acid-based compound fertilizer, blended fertilizer, organic compound fertilizer, slow-release fertilizers, concentrated water-soluble fertilizers, and mixed organic-inorganic compound fertilizer and the development, production, and distribution of agricultural products, such as top-grade fruits, vegetables, flowers and colored seedlings in China. The company operates in four segments: Fertilizer products (Jinong), Fertilizer products (Gufeng), agricultural products (Yuxing), and Sales VIEs(variable interest entities). All of its operations are conducted in China.
Executives
Shi Yiru director 1217 S CATALINA AVENUE REDONDO BEACH CA 90277
Shen Jianlei director 3RD FLOOR, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A. NO. 181 SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD XI?AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 PRC 710065
Fan Ale director 3RD FLOOR, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A. NO. 181 SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD XI?AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 PRC 710065
Zhang Yizhao director 45 OLD MILLSTONE DRIVE, NIT 6 EAST WINDSOR NJ 08520
Fields Robert B director 215 EAST 68TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10021
Raeburn Barry L director C/O FUSHI INTERNATIONAL INC. 1 SHUANGQIANG ROAD, JINZHOU DALIAN F4 116100
To Yinshing David 10 percent owner 45 OLD MILLSTONE DR, UNIT 6 EAST WINDSOR NJ 08520
Schwartz Sanford other: Former Officer & 10% Owner 5353 MANHATTAN CIRCLE STE 101 BOULDER CO 80303
Friess Michael other: Former Officer & 10% Owner 5353 MANHATTAN CIRCLE STE 101 BOULDER CO 80303
Venette John H director, officer: CFO & Treasurer 5353 MANHATTAN CIRCLE SUITE 101 BOULDER CO 80303
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