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Chevron Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.01% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Chevron's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Chevron's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Chevron Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Chevron's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Chevron's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Chevron Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-9.06

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Chevron  (NYSE:CVX) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Chevron Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Chevron's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Chevron Business Description

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Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Address
6001 Bollinger Canyon Road, San Ramon, CA, USA, 94583-2324
Chevron is an integrated energy company with exploration, production, and refining operations worldwide. It is the second- largest oil company in the United States with production of 3.1 million of barrels of oil equivalent a day, including 7.7 million cubic feet a day of natural gas and 1.8 million of barrels of liquids a day. Production activities take place in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. Its refineries are in the U.S. and Asia for total refining capacity of 1.8 million barrels of oil a day. Proven reserves at year-end 2021 stood at 11.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, including 6.1 billion barrels of liquids and 30.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Executives
Bonner Eimear P officer: Vice President 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Hewson Marillyn A director C/O CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION PO BOX 14662 READING PA 19612-4662
Inchausti David A officer: Vice Pres. and Comptroller 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Parfitt Colin E officer: Vice President 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Morris Rhonda J officer: Vice President 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Reed Debra L director 488 8TH AVENUE SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Umpleby Iii Donald J director 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Nelson Mark A officer: Vice President 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Frank John director C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 333 SOUTH GRAND 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Austin Wanda M director 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Moyo Dambisa F director 10200 S. DEANZA BOULEVARD CUPERTINO CA 95014
Ourada Jeanette L officer: Vice Pres. and Comptroller 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Thulin Inge G director 1250 5TH AVENUE SOUTH NAPLES FL 34102
Cummings Alexander B Jr director
Huntsman Jon M Jr director 500 HUNTSMAN WAY SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108

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