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Delta Air Lines Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.11% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Delta Air Lines's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.11%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Airlines subindustry, Delta Air Lines's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Delta Air Lines Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Delta Air Lines's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Delta Air Lines's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Delta Air Lines Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.83

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.11%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Delta Air Lines  (NYSE:DAL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Delta Air Lines Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Delta Air Lines Business Description

Delta Air Lines logo
Industry
Industrials » Transportation NAICS : 481111 SIC : 4512
Address
Post Office Box 20706, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30320-6001
Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines is one of the world's largest airlines, with a network of over 300 destinations in more than 50 countries. Delta operates a hub-and-spoke system network, where it gathers and distributes passengers across the globe through key locations in Atlanta, New York, Salt Lake City, Detroit, Seattle, and Minneapolis-St. Paul. Delta's sale of frequent flier miles, particularly to American Express, is a major driver of the firm's profits.
Executives
Jacobson Paul A officer: EVP & CFO C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., DEPT. 981 P.O. BOX 20574 ATLANTA GA 30320
Carter Ashton B director C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320
Mattson George N director C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320
Jackson Jeanne P director 537 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE #306 NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Waller Kathy N director THE COCA-COLA COMPANY ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA ATLANTA GA 30313
Taylor David S director THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA CINCINNATI OH 45202
Rial Sergio director CARGILL, INCORPORATED 15615 MCGINTY ROAD WEST WAYZATA MN 55391
Huerta Michael P director 1800 M STREET NW SUITE 800 WASHINGTON DC 20036
Dewalt David G director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: DEWALT DAVID G a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Blake Francis S director 2455 PACES FERRY RD ATLANTA GA 30339
Easter William H Iii director 370 17TH ST STE 2500 DENVER CO 80202
Samant Rahul D officer: EVP & Chief Info Officer C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320
Buffett Warren E 10 percent owner 3555 FARNAM ST STE 1440 OMAHA NE 68131
Berkshire Hathaway Inc 10 percent owner 3555 FARNAM STREET OMAHA NE 68131
Carroll William C officer: SVP, Finance & Controller C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320

Delta Air Lines Headlines

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