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FTI Consulting Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.02% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, FTI Consulting's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Consulting Services subindustry, FTI Consulting's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

FTI Consulting Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, FTI Consulting's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where FTI Consulting's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



FTI Consulting Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.63

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


FTI Consulting  (NYSE:FCN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


FTI Consulting Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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FTI Consulting Business Description

FTI Consulting logo
Industry
Industrials » Business Services NAICS : 541611 SIC : 8742
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
555 12th Street North West, Suite 700, Washington, DC, USA, 20004
FTI Consulting Inc is a firm that generates its sales by providing professional business advisory services to customers. The company operates through five segments, namely corporate finance and restructuring, forensic and litigation consulting, economic consulting, technology, and strategic communications. Customers of the company come from a wide array of sectors, including construction, energy and power, environmental, financial institutions, healthcare and life science, insurance, real estate and infrastructure, retail and consumer products, telecom, media, and technology. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from serving customers in the United States.
Executives
Bacon Brenda J director 909 COMMERCE ROAD ANNAPOLIS MD 21403
Costamagna Claudio director VIA SEBETO 4 MILANO L6 20123
Seeger Laureen director C/O MCKESSON CORPORATION ONE POST STREET - 33RD FLOOR SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bartlett Mark S. director 4701 WEST GREENFIELD AVENUE MILWAUKEE WI 53214
Fanandakis Nicholas C director 1007 MARKET STREET WILMINGTON DE 19898
Ellis Vernon James director 49 QUEENS GATE TERRACE LONDON X0 SW7 5PN
Holthaus Gerard E director 3129 BLENDON ROAD OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Paul Holly officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 6016 KINGSFORD ROAD BETHESDA MD 20817
Keating Brendan J officer: CAO and Controller C/O FTI CONSULTING INC 555 12TH STREET NW WASHINGTON DC 20004
Sabherwal Ajay officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O FAIRPOINT COMMUNICATIONS, INC. 521 E. MOREHEAD STREET, SUITE 500 CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Linton Paul Alderman officer: Chief Strategy/Transf. Officer 5915 SONOMA ROAD BETHESDA MD 20817
Lu Curtis P officer: General Counsel 1203 STONNELL PLACE ALEXANDRIA VA 22302
Gunby Steven Henry director, officer: President & CEO 9508 HEMSWELL PLACE POTOMAC MD 20854
Pachman Matthew officer: VP, Chief Risk/Ethics Officer 4807 JAMESTOWN ROAD BETHESDA MD 20816
Freeman Catherine M officer: SVP, Controller and CAO 909 COMMERCE ROAD ANNAPOLIS MD 21401

FTI Consulting Headlines

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