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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.01% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Trucking subindustry, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.95

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings  (NYSE:KNX) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Business Description

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings logo
Industry
Industrials » Transportation NAICS : 484121 SIC : 4213
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20002 North 19th Avenue, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85027
Knight-Swift Transportation is by far the largest asset-based full-truckload carrier in the United States. About 80% of revenue derives from asset-based truckload shipping operations (including for-hire dry van, refrigerated, and dedicated contract). The remainder stems from truck brokerage and other asset-light logistics services (8%), as well as intermodal (8%), which uses the Class-I railroads for the underlying movement of the firm's shipping containers and also offers drayage services.
Executives
Moyes Vickie 10 percent owner SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Moyes Jerry 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% group SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Moyes Jerry & Vickie Family Trust 10 percent owner SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Garnreiter Michael director 6735 E. GREENWAY PARKWAY UNIT #2049 SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254
Nester Lyndee Moyes other: Member of 10% owner group PO BOX 1397 TOLLESON AZ 85353
Moyes Michael other: Member of 10% owner group SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Breen Shannon officer: Sr. VP Logistics/Intermodal 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85027
Flanagan Cary M officer: SVP and CAO SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Harrington Timothy Sean officer: Exec Vice Pres Sales 2200 NORTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85027
Knight Gary J director, officer: Vice Chairman PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: KNIGHT GARY J a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Knight Kevin P director, officer: Executive Chairman 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Liu Michael K officer: Exec. VP of Ops, Knight Trans 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Jackson David A director, officer: President and CEO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: JACKSON DAVID A a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Yu Wayne officer: CAO of Knight Trans. Inc. 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Carlson Todd F. officer: General Counsel and Secretary 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Headlines

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