Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Oil Refineries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Oil Refineries (OTCPK:OILRF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Oil Refineries Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
OILRF vs VLO, MPC, PSX: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Oil Refineries's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Oil Refineries Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Oil Refineries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Oil Refineries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Oil Refineries Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.63
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% mean?
Oil Refineries (OILRF) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is Oil Refineries' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Oil Refineries' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. Overall, Oil Refineries has a GF Score™ of 44/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Oil Refineries' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to VLO and MPC?
Oil Refineries' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% can be compared against companies in the Oil & Gas industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Oil & Gas company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Oil & Gas industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Oil Refineries's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Oil Refineries stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Oil Refineries (OILRF) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $0.29, compared to a current price of $0.45 — trading 55.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. Oil Refineries' overall GF Score™ is 44/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Oil Refineries (OILRF), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Oil Refineries (OILRF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Oil Refineries stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $0.45 is trading 55.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of $0.29.
GuruFocus considers Oil Refineries to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for OILRF:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.05%
GF Value™: $0.29 vs. price of $0.45 (55.5% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the OILRF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Oil Refineries Ltd (ORL), also known as Bazan Group, engages in the production of fuel products. It also manufactures raw materials for the petrochemical industry and materials for the plastic industry, including oils, wax, and accompanying products. The company also provides power and water (mainly electricity and steam) services to a number of industries located near the refinery in Israel. The variety of products refined by ORL is used in industrial operations, transportation, private consumption, agriculture, and infrastructures. ORL plays a key role in Israel's refinery complex, with a major portion of refined products going to local consumption. Although the majority of operations are consumed by refining, ORL is also active in polymer and aromatic production through subsidiaries.
44GF Score
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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