What is Coastal Contacts Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Coastal Contacts's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Coastal Contacts's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Medical Instruments & Supplies subindustry, Coastal Contacts's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Coastal Contacts's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Medical Devices & Instruments Industry
For the Medical Devices & Instruments industry and Healthcare sector, Coastal Contacts's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Coastal Contacts's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Coastal Contacts Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Coastal Contacts (OSTO:COA) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Coastal Contacts Inc. was incorporated under the Canada Business Corporations Act on December 14, 2000. The Company is an online retailer of vision care products. It is a direct-to-consumer retailer of vision care products and services. The Company sells contact lenses, eyeglasses and related products mainly through the Company's internet websites, although customers may also place orders over the telephone. It has operations and distribution centers in North America, Europe and Australia. The Company sells contact lenses manufactured by multinational companies such as Johnson and Johnson Inc., CIBA Vision Corporation (a division of Alcon), Bausch & Lomb Inc. and Coopervision Inc. It sells eyeglasses, which are mainly assembled in the Company's own laboratories, composed of frames and lenses purchased from a variety of different suppliers. The frames it uses in its eyeglasses include both branded frames and the Company's own private label frames such as Derek Cardigan, Kam Dhillon, Ltede and Joseph Marc. The Company also sells a variety of vision related products such as sunglasses and contact lens solutions including its own Healthy Eyes brand multipurpose contact lens solution for soft contact lenses. It offers substantially all of the soft contact lenses produced by the contact lens manufacturers, including Johnson & Johnson Inc., CIBA Vision Corporation, Bausch & Lomb Inc. and Coopervision Inc. The Company conducts all of its product fulfillment operations from the Company's distribution facilities in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Stockholm, Sweden; Blaine, Washington and Sydney, Australia.
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