GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Paychex Inc (NAS:PAYX) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Paychex (Paychex) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.03% (As of Jul. 16, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 1983. Start your Free Trial

What is Paychex Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Paychex's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Paychex's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Staffing & Employment Services subindustry, Paychex's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Paychex's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Business Services Industry

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, Paychex's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Paychex's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Paychex Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.21

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Paychex  (NAS:PAYX) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Paychex Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Paychex's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Paychex (Paychex) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Paychex Inc (NAS:PAYX) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
911 Panorama Trail South, Rochester, NY, USA, 14625-2396
Paychex is a leading provider of payroll, human capital management, and insurance solutions servicing small and midsize clients primarily in the United States. The company, established in 1979, services over 740,000 clients and pays over 1 in 12 U.S. private-sector workers. Alongside its traditional payroll services, Paychex offers HCM solutions such as benefits administration and time and attendance software, as well as human resources outsourcing and insurance agency services.
Executives
Flaschen David J S director 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Christopher C Simmons officer: VP, Controller & Treasurer 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Michael E Gioja officer: Sr. Vice President 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Efrain Rivera officer: Sr. Vice President, CFO 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Martin Mucci officer: Sr. Vice President 911 PANORAMA TRAIL S, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Joseph M Tucci director EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Joseph M Velli director
Elizabeth Roaldsen officer: Sr. Vice President 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Karen E. Saunders-mcclendon officer: VP, Chief Human Resources Offi 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Theresa M. Payton director 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
John B Gibson officer: Sr. VP, Service CONVERGYS CORPORATION, 201 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Mark Anthony Bottini officer: Sr. VP of Sales 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Robert L. Schrader officer: VP/Controller 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Stephanie L Schaeffer officer: Chief Legal Officer 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Joseph Doody director CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC, 25 GREENS HILL LANE PO BOX 866, RUTLAND VT 05701

Paychex (Paychex) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Paychex Inc Annual Shareholders Meeting Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q4 2021 Paychex Inc Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q3 2019 Paychex Inc Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q4 2023 Paychex Inc Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q3 2020 Paychex Inc Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q4 2019 Paychex Inc Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q1 2022 Paychex Inc Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024