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Paychex (Paychex) Predictability Rank


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What is Paychex Predictability Rank?

5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Paychex Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Paychex Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Paychex's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Paychex (Paychex) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
911 Panorama Trail South, Rochester, NY, USA, 14625-2396
Paychex is a leading provider of payroll, human capital management, and insurance solutions servicing small and midsize clients primarily in the United States. The company, established in 1979, services over 740,000 clients and pays over 1 in 12 U.S. private-sector workers. Alongside its traditional payroll services, Paychex offers HCM solutions such as benefits administration and time and attendance software, as well as human resources outsourcing and insurance agency services.
Executives
Flaschen David J S director 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Christopher C Simmons officer: VP, Controller & Treasurer 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Michael E Gioja officer: Sr. Vice President 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Efrain Rivera officer: Sr. Vice President, CFO 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Martin Mucci officer: Sr. Vice President 911 PANORAMA TRAIL S, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Joseph M Tucci director EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Joseph M Velli director
Elizabeth Roaldsen officer: Sr. Vice President 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Karen E. Saunders-mcclendon officer: VP, Chief Human Resources Offi 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Theresa M. Payton director 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
John B Gibson officer: Sr. VP, Service CONVERGYS CORPORATION, 201 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Mark Anthony Bottini officer: Sr. VP of Sales 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Robert L. Schrader officer: VP/Controller 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Stephanie L Schaeffer officer: Chief Legal Officer 911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Joseph Doody director CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC, 25 GREENS HILL LANE PO BOX 866, RUTLAND VT 05701

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