Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Sonic Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Sonic Automotive (NYSE:SAH) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Sonic Automotive Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
SAH vs CARG, MCW, DRVN: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Auto & Truck Dealerships subindustry, Sonic Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Sonic Automotive Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Vehicles & Parts Industry
For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Sonic Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Sonic Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Sonic Automotive Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.46
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% mean?
Sonic Automotive (SAH) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is Sonic Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Sonic Automotive's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Overall, Sonic Automotive has a GF Score™ of 82/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Sonic Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CARG and MCW?
Sonic Automotive's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% can be compared against companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Vehicles & Parts company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Vehicles & Parts industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Sonic Automotive's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Sonic Automotive stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Sonic Automotive (SAH) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $64.31, compared to a current price of $83.83 — trading 30.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Sonic Automotive's overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Sonic Automotive (SAH), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Sonic Automotive (SAH) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Sonic Automotive stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $83.83 is trading 30.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $64.31.
GuruFocus considers Sonic Automotive to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for SAH:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06%
GF Value™: $64.31 vs. price of $83.83 (30.4% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SAH stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Sonic Automotive is one of the largest auto dealership groups in the United States. The company has 107 franchised stores in 18 states, primarily in metropolitan areas in California, Texas, and the Southeast, plus 18 EchoPark used-vehicle stores in 10 states, 16 collision centers, and 20 powersports locations. The franchise stores derive revenue from new and used vehicles plus parts and collision repair, finance, insurance, and wholesale auctions. Luxury and import dealerships make up about 86% of franchise new-vehicle revenue, while Honda, BMW, Mercedes, and Toyota constitute about 56% of new-vehicle revenue. BMW is the largest brand at about 23%. 2025 revenue was $15.2 billion, with Texas and California constituting 51% of the total. EchoPark's portion was $2.1 billion.
82GF Score
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