Yakult Honsha Co (TSE:2267) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.02% (As of Today)

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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Yakult Honsha Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison

For the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic subindustry, Yakult Honsha Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Yakult Honsha Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Yakult Honsha Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Yakult Honsha Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Yakult Honsha Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-8.68

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Yakult Honsha Co (TSE:2267) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Yakult Honsha Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Yakult Honsha Co (TSE:2267) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Non-Alcoholic » Yakult Honsha Co Ltd (TSE:2267) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

YKLTY:USA YKH:Germany

Address

1-19 Higashi Shimbashi 1-chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 105-0021

Website

http://www.yakult.co.jp

Yakult is a pioneer in probiotics, which launched the probiotic drinks Yakult in 1935 after Minoru Shirota's discovery of Lactobacillus casei strain Shirota, a strain of lactic acid bacteria proved to be able to live in intestines, in 1930. It operates in 40 countries across four continents selling mainly the Yakult probiotic drinks. Apart from the retail outlets, the home delivery channel, served by a team of 83,000 Yakult Ladies globally, contributes about 45% of its probiotic drink volume. Overseas markets comprise 40% of group sales and profits. Yakult has built a meaningful presence in populated emerging markets including China, Indonesia, Mexico, and Brazil. It plans to step up expansion in the U.S. It also operates a pharmaceutical business with an emphasis on oncology drugs.

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