Ginza Renoir Co (TSE:9853) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01% (As of Jul. 11, 2026)


TSE:9853 Ginza Renoir Co Ltd TSE:9853
72 GF Score
Price 円904.00
GF Value 円1,044.07
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Ginza Renoir Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Ginza Renoir Co TSE:9853 72 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jul. 11, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:9853 with a GF Score™ of 72/100 and a GF Value™ of 円1,044.07 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Ginza Renoir Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Ginza Renoir Co  (TSE:9853) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Ginza Renoir Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


TSE:9853 vs MCD, SBUX, YUM: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Ginza Renoir Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Ginza Renoir Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Ginza Renoir Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ginza Renoir Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


TSE:9853
72GF Score
Ginza Renoir Co Ltd TSE:9853
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Ginza Renoir Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-9.12

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% mean?
Ginza Renoir Co (TSE:9853) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% as of Jul. 11, 2026.
Is Ginza Renoir Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Ginza Renoir Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Overall, Ginza Renoir Co has a GF Score™ of 72/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Ginza Renoir Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to MCD and SBUX?
Ginza Renoir Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% can be compared against companies in the Restaurants industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Restaurants company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Restaurants industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Ginza Renoir Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Ginza Renoir Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ginza Renoir Co (TSE:9853) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円1,044.07, compared to a current price of 円904.00 — trading 13.4% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Ginza Renoir Co's overall GF Score™ is 72/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Ginza Renoir Co (TSE:9853), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jul. 11, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Ginza Renoir Co (TSE:9853) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ginza Renoir Co stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of 円904.00 is trading 13.4% below its estimated GF Value™ of 円1,044.07. GuruFocus considers Ginza Renoir Co to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:9853:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01%
  • GF Value™: 円1,044.07 vs. price of 円904.00 (13.4% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 72/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:9853 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Ginza Renoir Co Business Description

Address Ginza Renoir Building 4-60-3 Chuo, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 164 0011
Ginza Renoir Co Ltd is a Japan based company engaged in the management of restaurants. It owns and operates restaurants and coffee shops under Renoir tearoom, Cafe Renoir, New Yorker's Cafe and Cafe Miyama brand names, and also engages in the sale of cigarette and smoking supplies.
72GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:9853

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円904.00
Price
円1,044.07
GF Value