Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.01% (As of Today)

View and export this data going back to 1921. Start your Free Trial

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Imperial Oil's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Imperial Oil's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Imperial Oil Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Imperial Oil's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Imperial Oil's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Imperial Oil Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-8.85

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Imperial Oil Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Imperial Oil's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Imperial Oil Ltd (TSX:IMO) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IMO:USA IMP:Germany

Address

505 Quarry Park Boulevard S.E, Calgary, AB, CAN, T2C 5N1

Website

https://www.imperialoil.ca

Imperial Oil is one of Canada's largest integrated oil companies, focusing on upstream operations, petroleum refining operations, and the marketing of petroleum products. Production averaged 398 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2020. The company estimates that it holds 5.2 billion boe of proved and probable crude oil and natural gas reserves. Imperial remains the largest refiner of petroleum products in Canada, operating three refineries with a combined processing capacity of 421 mboe/d. The Upstream segment operates to produce crude oil and its equivalent, and natural gas. The Downstream segment operates to refine crude oil into petroleum products. The Chemical segment manufactures hydrocarbon-based chemicals and chemical products.