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Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.04% (As of May. 30, 2024)


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What is Wells Fargo Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Banks - Diversified subindustry, Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Wells Fargo Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.86

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Wells Fargo  (NYSE:WFC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Wells Fargo Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Address
420 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94104
Wells Fargo is one of the largest banks in the United States, with approximately $1.9 trillion in balance sheet assets. The company has four primary segments: consumer banking, commercial banking, corporate and investment banking, and wealth and investment management. It is almost entirely focused on the U.S.
Executives
Richard K Davis director 800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Thomas R Nides officer: Vice Chairman C/O WELLS FARGO & COMPANY, 420 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Tracy M Kerrins officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 300 S BREVARD STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Kyle G Hranicky officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 1000 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Felicia F Norwood director 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Kleber Santos officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 1680 CAPITAL ONE DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Ellen R Patterson officer: Sr. EVP and General Counsel 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kristy Fercho officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 5151 CORPORATE DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
Cecelia Morken director 26025 MUREAU ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302
Beurden Saul Van officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 150 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Bei Ling officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Ather Iii Williams officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Michael P. Santomassimo officer: Sr. EVP & CFO 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Mark A Chancy director 303 PEACHTREE ST., 30TH FLOOR, ATLANTA GA 30308
Lester Owens officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 240 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286