Yale Transaction Finders (OTCPK:YTFD) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 50.00% (As of Today)

View and export this data going back to 2007. Start your Free Trial

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Yale Transaction Finders's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison

For the Shell Companies subindustry, Yale Transaction Finders's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Yale Transaction Finders Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Diversified Financial Services industry and Financial Services sector, Yale Transaction Finders's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Yale Transaction Finders's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Yale Transaction Finders Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

0.00

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	50.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Yale Transaction Finders (OTCPK:YTFD) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Yale Transaction Finders Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Yale Transaction Finders's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Yale Transaction Finders (OTCPK:YTFD) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Yale Transaction Finders Inc (OTCPK:YTFD) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

c/o Graubard Miller, 405 Lexington Avenue, 44th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10174

Website

Yale Transaction Finders Inc is a shell company.

Executives

Arnold P Kling	10 percent owner, officer: President, Treasurer	C/O ADELPHIA HOLDINGS LLC, 545 MADISON AVE 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jonathan J Ledecky	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, CFO	C/O THE LEDECKY FOUNDATION, 901 - 15TH STREET, NW, SUITE 950, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Thomas W Colligan	director, officer: See Remarks	5528 WESTCOTT CIRCLE, FREDERICK MD 21703
Fountainhead Capital Management Ltd	10 percent owner	PORTMAN HOUSE HUE STREET, ST HELIER, JERSEY CHANNEL ISLANDS X0 JE45RP
La Pergola Investments Ltd	10 percent owner	1 PORTMAN HOUSE, HUE STREET ST HELLIER, JERSEY CHANNEL ISLAN X0 JE45RP
Geoffrey Greenwood	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President,Secreatary	2045 KETTNER BLVD., SUITE 101, SAN DIEGO CA 92101

Yale Transaction Finders (OTCPK:YTFD) Headlines

No Headlines